This is the right strategy. The riots in Minneapolis repulsed the rurals and exurbs. He needs at least 1 of 4 rust belt states. They all have challenges.
WI is in the midst of a bad COVID wave. Michigan and Pennsylvania have very high black populations and democrats are energized.
Minnesota may the best shot to break the blue wall this time. If Trump wins Minnesota/AZ, he can lost PA, WI, MI and still get to 270 if every other state stays the same as 2016. He goes to 269 tie if he loses the Nebraska Omaha District which is possible but 269 is still a win as long as the Republicans keep control of the state congressional delegations.
Only point on WI - anybody who blames Trump for Covid wasn’t going to
vote for him anyway. The huge rural vote will still come out.