Polling has suggested Trump and Lewis are doing the same overall, with Trump better in rural/blue collar and Lewis better in the suburbs, offsetting each other.
Obviously Collin Peterson will run far ahead of Biden but I think he’s toast.
Rats are after Hageldorn (R MN-1) over some BS, Trump’s big margin his district will protect him.
MN-2 is a wildcard.
Trump could help flip a couple State Senate districts in northern MN. Rats are after some suburban seats.
Yours is a pretty accurate description of what’s going on in Minnesota.
I will tell you that the party activists appear energized this cycle. I, along with a number of others, have been active in the 2nd District. We’re trying to win back some suburban legislative seats we lost in 2018. One of them is in my district.
The number of people showing up at Trump rallies has been huge - especially in northern Minnesota. Biden has been running a sh**load of TV ads in the Twin Cities media market. I’m guessing there’s 3 Biden ads for every Trump ad.
Because the Twin Cities media market reached into some of the 7th District, there have been a lot of ads between GOP Michelle Fischbach and Democrat incumbent Colin Peterson. There was an internal poll released in late summer that showed that Fischbach had an eight point lead but I’ve heard nothing else since then.
The US Senate race is anyone’s guess. Tina Smith has really been in hiding since the get-go. She’s refused to debate Jason Lewis. My feeling is if Lewis can at least hold his own in the 2nd and 3rd ring ‘burbs and not get annihilated there, he has a chance.