If the reports of 400k votes left in Maricopa county or wherever it is are correct, Trump will likely win AZ handily.
The county is currently 52/46 Biden, in 16, it was 49/46 Trump. at 49/46 Trump (last election) that’s a net gain for Trump of around 60,000 votes.
However, last election you had Johnson take about 4% of the vote here... and another 3rd party take 1. This time its jus the 1 third party taking 1, so that’ leaves 4 extra percent in play in that 400k that wasn’t there in 16.
If they break Trump 3 to 1 and get 52/47 then you have exactly 100,000 votes picked up for Trump... The current gap is just below that.
So, we shall see...
3 to 1 sounds like a lot, until you consider these are in-person or drop off voting. Dems already voted by mail. So, not so far fetched.