35% seems doable. 35-65 the rest of the way, if true sounds ok. Shouldn’t be that close, but I’m optimistic. If GA and NC flip blue, they’re not worthy to be called Southern States.
I assume we win AZ.
We likely lose WI (not conceding anything there), but win NC.
That would make it a dead heat at 243.
So the winner needs two out of three - PA, GA, and MI.