COVID-19 Update - 11/10/2020

My own workup | 11/10/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 237

As of 11/09/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information⁵
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Fatalities and New Cases in the United States

Fatalities rose by 182 cases from the previous day, to come in at 681
yesterday. That was 29.96% higher than the same day the previous
week.

New Cases rose by 30,078 cases from the day before, to come in at 133,546
yesterday. That was 44.07% higher than the same day the week before.

Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene

Fatalities rose by 14,373 cases from the previous day, to come in at 7,008
yesterday. That was 12.34% higher than the same day the previous week.

New Cases rose by 14,373 cases from the day before, to come in at 488,257
yesterday. This was 3.10% lower than the same day the week before.

I have been noticing a softening of the growth in Global Cases. There have
been a few indicators, that we may be seeing a reduction in the massive
growth we have been week to week in the global scene. Lets hope that
becomes more prominent in upcoming days and weeks.

Global Milestones

The Global Community saw its 51 millionth New Case yesterday.
The Global Community also saw its 36 millionth Recovery.
The Global Community rolled past it's 14 millionth Active Case yesterday.

United States Milestone

The United States saw it's 6.5 millionth Recovery yesterday.
There were still 3,624,813 Active Cases at the end of the day yesterday.

Testing Level Alert for China

I have watched China declare testing figures two times so far. When the
United States approches it's number, it spits out a new exercise in fantasy.

We are very close to their 160,000,000 figure and will eclipse in the
next 24-48 hours. I expect China to release a new number shortly.

All these massive tests (in China), but almost no new cases... LOL

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Here we go...

New Case Declarations rose by 30,078 cases yesterday.

Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
It has been falling recently.

The number is significant enough now to take note of it daily now.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Active Cases rose by 63,521 cases yesterday. That was another very heavy day.

Serious/Critical cases rose by 493 cases yesterday. That's a large amount,
comparitively.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been decreasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

The struggle continues, as we now move back up again.

We had dropped about 6.00% in the Active Case slice of the pie in the last month,
but don't let that fool you. Our number has been growing too much, but the
global number has been growing more than ours.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point with this one.

Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Not seeing any signs of New Case declaration numbers softening.

Active Cases will be going up further.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary as much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

Testing numbers rose by close to 640,000 tests yesterday.

The 14-day positive percentage continues to rise.

I use the 14-day averagine line for comparisons. The single-day and 3-day
averages bounce around too much for an accurate assessment.

This area is looking pretty skittish over the last week or so.

That 14-day rising line is hard to take.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to watch.

 

The New Case Declarations line is moving on up.

The Active Case line is rising.

United States Movers and Shakers...

I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.

Here we go...

Illinois and Michigan took the top spots yesterday.

Texas has very high numbers also.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

New Case declarations rose by 14,384 cases yesterday.

The Resolved Percentage fell again yesterday.

Please take a look back up the column to see it's changes recently.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Active Cases rose by 227,518 cases yesterday. That is higher than normal
growth, but we're seeing atronimical New Cases these days, and the
Resolved Cases just can't keep up right now.

Check out the Serious/Critical cases there. Grrrr...

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

The middle number dropped again yesterday. Who thought 354k was
a small number a month ago.

Those blue columns are growing. Drat!

The blue line there... well... &%#!

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Global Active Cases are growing considerably. In the last 30 days they have
added over 4 million new cases, at least two-thirds of what was accumulated
in the prior seven months.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Ug!

The best way to read these line charges, is to take each individual
nation and compare what it's doing now in relation to what it was
doing.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden had flattened out a bit after that correction a while back, but it
is drifting up at an excellerated pace now. Norway seems to be making
a move also.

The best way to read these line changes, is to take each individual
nation and compare what it's doing now in relation to what it was
doing.

The Netherlands... yikes.

Global Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

The United States took both spots again here yesterday.

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

 

The Active Case chart line is turning up. Sorry to see it.

In the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.

That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.003% of today's total global numbers.
(this was larger than normal change here, and there may have been
something I didn't pick on - keep that in mind as you review this)

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

The Resolved percentage is declining for all groups at this time. Just
peek at it once in a while.

Folks should view up the column to see what the trend here has been
recently.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Active Cases rose by 227,520 cases yesterday, and Serious/Critical cases
rose by 1,094 cases.

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Numbers went up here in accordance with the growth this time of the week.

It was a Sunday, and that is generally the second lower reporting
day of the week. (Sat, Sun, & Mon...)

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.

Our reported Fatalities rose by 182 yesterday.

We started off out of character for the week, and it has stayed with us
related to elevated numbers this week.

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

This area hasn't looked too good lately. Not good...

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

This data was developed so we could see the nations that pose a real threat
to our hopes of lower cases globally. These are only declared cases,
but it does help us to see where the large infectious communities
have been globally.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Please take note of the new tally line down below the numbers up above.
I'm now showing the case number change and percentage of this week's number
to last weeks number. If a number hasn't been entered yet this week, the
spread will cover the week before.

Notice that the number of new cases yesterday was smaller than the number
on the same day last week. This is an indicator to me that the massive
growth is softening. It may still go up, but probably not at the same
rates we have recently.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough. Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China did not update that number until 09/02/20. On that date they
raised the number to 160,000,000. As of October 3rd, 2020, they haven't updeded
it again. So I do not inlude China in the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding
Testing, and any place that reports out global testing numbers for a top level
comparison.

Please note that global testing on the Dashboard was only deducting China's
90,410,000 figure from 09/02 through 10/02/2020. I should have been
deducting the 160,000,000 figure, and all global figures during that period
were 69,590,000 tests too high.

We remained in 19th place yesterday.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

[lightman]

Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats November 10

Figures from PA Department of Health as of midnight November 9-10

LTC deaths = 5922 (increase of 15)
Total deaths = 9086 (increase of 62)

Cumulative LTC deaths as percentage of total = 65.2

The beginning of the week has usually brought at least one “catch up day” with alleged increase spikes. Recall that on Saturday November 8 and Sunday November 9 there were supposedly only one LTC death for the two days and only 9 COVID deaths statewide.

That two day trend of COVID deaths being overtaken by vehicle accident and gunfire deaths couldn’t continue...or could it?

[No_Mas_Obama]

WHY HASN’T PRESIDENT-ERECT BEIJING BIDEN STOPPED COVID YET THAT’S WHY LIBERALS HIDING IN THEIR BASEMENTS VOTED AND STUFFED THE BALLOT BOX FOR HIM!!!

[wildcard_redneck]

[kaktuskid]

Who is getting most of the cases? Age? Race?
The same with hospitalization and death rates...Age? Race?
Are they homegrown cases? Mexican imports?
No one wants to tell us for certain reasons I suspect.

[thesearethetimes...]

Thank you.

[Paul R.]

Typo? You said:

Serious/Critical cases dropped by 493 cases yesterday. That's a large amount, comparitively.

But, from the table:

11/08 Serious/Critical = 18,462

11/09 Serious/Critical = 18,955

All 3 cannot be correct.

[DoughtyOne]

Thank you. I start the process of rewriting the new report
from the old one. At times I do miss the “rise vs fall”
change when it takes place.

When you guys tell me, I can have it changed.

Appreciate it.

I find things like to often enough. I try not to post
mistakes, but they happen.

[DoughtyOne]

...like this often enough...

[FamiliarFace]

Anecdotal. Most recent case I know of in my sphere is a relative of my BIL. The infected person is a white female relative in her early 40s, obese, was exposed to someone at a recent bridal shower. A few days after the shower she started with symptoms, which worsened quickly, and her doctor also told her that she had CoVid pneumonia, after further testing. Very shortly after pneumonia diagnosis, she was admitted into the hospital last weekend. I don’t know her treatment, but she never worsened in her short stay. She was released yesterday and was told she was no longer contagious. This happened in north central Florida last week and she was discharged yesterday. From time of shower to yesterday was just over 2 weeks time.

[Paul R.]

No prob.

I wish yesterday’s number had been a typo, though. I think I jinxed it by mentioning yesterday how serious / critical was being fairly well behaved.

I guess that went out the window. Pretty good bet the increase will be reflected, at least somewhat, in fatalities. :-(

[Paul R.]

Anecdotal here: We are hearing of more people we know either positive (one works at the nursing home that had 44 cases a week or so ago - apparently they are still seeing either some spread or some people taking longer to test positive), or get quarantined for being in close contact with someone positive (the most notable to us is one of our daughter’s teachers!)

Overall, I think this week was the most people we know of in this area being quarantined at one time, even going back to this spring. Granted that this region with a few exceptions (hot counties) has been relatively “light” up until this point.

My daughter’s teacher is not a very healthy person anyway, which is troubling from a couple different angles...

[DoughtyOne]

I agree with that.

We are seeing increased numbers of fatalities, for what it’s
worth.

When the 2nd wave hit, fatalities went up within weeks. I
was afraid this time would work out the same, and it has.

[Paul R.]

Yeah...

I just hope the daily fatalities curve doesn’t steepen too much.

[DoughtyOne]

Same here, but the Active Case line is increasing.

Not liking that.

Everything we say about this situation has to be taken with
a grain of salt though. Many people have very little or no
symptoms.

[kvanbrunt2]

Anecdotal here: I have heard teachers as well. so the schools backed off in school classes.