Posted on 11/12/2020 8:22:29 PM PST by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update # 239
As of 11/11/2020 23:15 PDST United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
If you don't fully understand the COVID-19 Dashboard, please click on it
an you will see more of an explanation.
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information4
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Fatalities and New Cases in the United States
Fatalities fell off by 39 cases from the previous day, to come in at 1,455
yesterday. That was actually 22.68% lower than the same day the previous
week.
New Cases bell by 6,674 cases from the day before, to come in at 140,014
yesterday. That was 29.24% higher than the same day the week before.
Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene
Fatalities rose by 110 cases from the previous day, to come in at 10,502
yesterday. That was 1.20% higher than the same day the previous week.
New Cases rose by 67,824 cases from the day before, to come in at 645,771
yesterday. This was 10.17% higher than the same day the week before.
I've noticed that not all days have massive growth like what we have
been seeing for a few weeks now. There are still some massive growth
days Globally, and this was another one.
Global Milestone
On the Global scene we have now identified over 52 million cases of COVID-19.
At the rate those numbers are rising, we will reach 53 million on the 12th.
Testing Level Alert for China
I have watched China declare testing figures two times so far. When the
United States approches it's number, it spits out a new exercise in fantasy.
Well our testing numbers rose above China's 160,000,000 tests the day
yesterday, and ended the say yesterday with 161,917,567 so far this
pandemic.
I expect an update by China any day now.
All these massive tests (in China), but almost no new cases... LOL
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Here we go...
New Case Declarations fell by 6,674 cases yesterday.
Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
It has been falling recently.
The number is significant enough now to take note of it daily.
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here are more of our numbers...
Active Cases rose by 92,371 cases yesterday. I didn't recall seeing a day
with this big an increase of Active Cases in the United States. I looked
it up, and it's the largest single day we've had.
Yesterday's number was the second largest number so far.
Serious/Critical cases continue to rise on the right there.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our slice of the pie has been decreasing recently.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.
The struggle continues, as we now move back up again.
We had dropped about 6.00% in the Active Case slice of the pie in the last month,
but we're back on the move up. The Global area is growing much faster.
Active Cases in the United States / Chart
Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point with this one.
Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.
Not seeing any signs of New Case declaration numbers softening.
Active Cases will be going up further.
Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup
Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.
Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary as much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.
Testing remained close to the same number from the day before yesterday.
The 14-day line is going up strongly. Look at it there, and then look
up the column to note how much it has increased over the last month.
I use the 14-day averagine line for comparisons. The single-day and 3-day
averages bounce around too much for an accurate assessment.
The important thing here is that 10.627% single-day figure for postives
yesterday. It was in early May when the single-day figure was last
in that range, until the day before yesterday.
That 14-day rising line is hard to take. Look at that thing.
The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to watch.
The New Case Declarations line is moving on up.
The Active Case line is rising.
United States Movers and Shakers...
I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.
Here we go...
Texas and Illinois swapped places yesterday to take the top spots.
Their New Case declarations were very high.
Both have had high New Case numbers for several days now.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
New Case declarations rose by 67,826 cases yesterday.
The Resolved Percentage fell again yesterday, and seemingly at a higher
rate..
Please take a look back up the column to see it's changes recently.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
Active Cases rose by 336,393 cases yesterday. That is higher than normal
growth, but we're seeing atronimical New Cases these days, and the
Resolved Cases just can't keep up right now.
Check out the Serious/Critical cases there. Grrrr...
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Let's see...
The middle number was on the rise again yesterday. It's that time of the
week.
Those blue columns are growing. Drat! We say minimalist relief yesterday.
Globally? No.
The blue line there... well... &%#! X*!#?
The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart
As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.
Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
Global Active Cases are growing considerably. In the last 30 days they have
added over 4 million new cases, at least two-thirds of what was accumulated
in the prior seven months.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)
Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
Ug!
The best way to read these line charges, is to take each individual
nation and compare what it's doing now in relation to what it was
doing.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?
Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
Sweden had flattened out a bit after that correction a while back, but it
is drifting up at an excellerated pace now. Norway seems to be making
a move also.
The best way to read these line changes, is to take each individual
nation and compare what it's doing now in relation to what it was
doing.
The Netherlands... yikes.
Global Movers and Shakers...
I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.
Here we go...
The United States took both spots again here yesterday.
I'm not liking the margins either.
Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
The Active Case chart line is turning up. Sorry to see it.
In the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.
That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.003% of today's total global numbers.
(this was larger than normal change here, and there may have been
something I didn't pick on - keep that in mind as you review this)
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
The Resolved percentage is declining for all groups at this time. Just
peek at it once in a while.
Folks should view up the column to see what the trend here has been
recently.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Active Cases rose by 336,384 cases yesterday, and Serious/Critical cases
were on the rise also cases.
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Here is the data for four entities...
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.
Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
I'd like to say that numbers went up here in accordance with the growth this
week, but in truth our Fatalities are now starting to be impacted by the
massive growth in cases.
We dropped off little yesterday. The other regions rose.
Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.
Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.
Our reported Fatalities fell off by 39 yesterday. The volume of new cases and
Serious/Critical ones is hurting us, but we got a small breather yesterday.
We started off out of character for the week, and it has stayed with us
related to elevated numbers this week.
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.
This area hasn't looked too good lately. Not good...
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
This data was developed so we could see the nations that pose a real threat
to our hopes of lower cases globally. These are only declared cases,
but it does help us to see where the large infectious communities
have been globally.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.
And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Please take note of the new tally line down below the numbers up above.
I'm now showing the case number change and percentage of this week's number
to last weeks number. If a number hasn't been entered yet this week, the
spread will cover the week before.
Wednesday's increase over last week was back on the large side yesterday.
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.
There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.
These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China did not update that number until 09/02/20. On that date they
raised the number to 160,000,000. As of October 3rd, 2020, they haven't updeded
it again. So I do not inlude China in the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding
Testing, and any place that reports out global testing numbers for a top level
comparison.
Please note that global testing on the Dashboard was only deducting China's
90,410,000 figure from 09/02 through 10/02/2020. I should have been
deducting the 160,000,000 figure, and all global figures during that period
were 69,590,000 tests too high.
We remained in 19th place yesterday.
Section: 10
Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers
Listed in the order of current utilization...
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, Nations219,
and the CDC Provisional Counts53
Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats November 12.
Buckle, up, this one is going to be a ride!
Data from PA Department of Health swept midnight November 11-12.
LTC deaths = 5999 (increase of 77)
Total deaths = 9194 (increase of 49)
Cumulative LTC deaths as percentage of total = 65.2
Anyone smarter than a fifth-grader knows that the subset (LTC deaths) cannot be greater than the set; but here we go, deja-vu all over again.
Anyone who has followed my posts over the past few weekls should know this patern: after many days of unrealistically low or non-existent alleged LTC deaths (0, 15, 1, & 6) over the last four days counting backward...another “statistical adjustment” worthy of ballot counters in Philadelphia.
As the French say, “merde alors!”
Makes you wonder if anyone back there is checking out the
numbers besides you. They should catch this. Not happening
though.
And to think that the PA Governor used to be the Secretary of Revenue...no wonder our gas tax is one of the highest in the nation while our bridges and highways crumble.
I think William J. LePetimaine (Blazing Saddles) had more competentence...
Who verifies whether any of these numbers are correct. Seems as if the # of cases is estimated and made to look worse than actual numbers. How many deaths are due to other factors like heart disease, cancer and other morbidities that actually lead to the death of the patient? Is there an economic incentive for the hospital and doctors to say cause of death to be COVID-19?
If you know of a better database out there, just let me know.
Thanks.
Number of deaths this year as compared to last will be very close to identical. This is a false flag.
Not true.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Plus about 10% overall annually, but the weekly trend after the first wave took out the most vulnerable in April-July has fallen back close to baseline.
But since most C19 victims were elderly or chronically ill, deaths may be below normal beginning next year.
The spread in Europe seems to have peaked in every country except the Baltics, at least from last week to this week.
There is the earliest hint that may be the case in the US as well. New cases are up this week over last week, but unlike the last several weeks, there was almost no increase from Tuesday to Wednesday and only a modest 8% increase on Thursday.
Speaking of which, the number of serious / critical US cases in your table looks odd again, esp. since you cite a rise.
Of course I wish it would go down.
Illinois and KY case numbers are on fire. Anecdotal evidence (people we know ill or quarantined) pretty much backing it up. Private school wifey teaches at has multiple personnel out including the principal. (The principal’s infant daughter is symptomatic - got it from a sitter.) They are still open, we’ll see if that holds up.
So far, yes. Some countries around Europe, such as Russia & Iran are still rocketing up.
Sweden is most curious. Deaths per million of population are moderate (605), though a bit lower than ours (749). However, their cases per million (16,929) are just over half ours (32,781). This for a population reputedly considerably more healthy than ours, and doing less mitigation.* Their testing per million pop. is low too (but easily understandable if they simply have less people symptomatic from COVID-19 or exposed to it and wanting to be tested.)
Sweden's cases per million would indicate they are further from herd immunity than we are. But it also argues they are doing better (mitigation) with "less"*, or, their population is somehow more resistant.
*Maybe Sweden's people are just much better voluntarily behaved, except that more elderly are exposed?
Specifically the number for 11/11, I mean.
Thanks!
Sweden followed the New York model of leaving C19 patients in nursing homes and killing off the vulnerable early.
With socialized medicine killing off the chronically ill year after year, they also didn’t have that many to kill off.
That’s the Swedish model. Still think it’s great?
Where did I say the Swedish model was “great”? I in fact suggested that they had (especially given the low case numbers) failed to do a good job of protecting their elderly.
Now, if what you say can be documented from solid sources, I appreciate the information as to the “why”, but you don’t have to be snarky about it.
The low case numbers are actually the more interesting question. (Not “more important”, just more intellectually interesting, because of the apparent contradictions.)
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Thank you.
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