Posted on 11/18/2020 2:40:51 PM PST by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update # 245
As of 11/17/2020 23:15 PDST United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
If you don't fully understand the COVID-19 Dashboard, please click on it
an you will see more of an explanation.
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information3
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Fatalities and New Cases in the United States
Fatalities rose by 852 cases from the previous day, to come in at 1,603
yesterday. That was 7.30% higher than the same day the previous week.
New Cases fell by 13,635 cases from the day before, to come in at 157,431
yesterday. That was 7.32% higher than the same day the week before.
Fatalaties and New Cases on the Global Scene
Fatalities rose by 2,763 cases from the previous day, to come in at 10,697
yesterday. That was 16.23% higher than the same day the previous week.
New Cases fell off by 44,148 cases from the day before, to come in at 573,617
yesterday. This was 0.75% lower than the same day the week before.
Global Milestone
On the Global Scene we saw the 56 millionth declared case.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Here we go...
New Case Declarations fell by 13,635 cases yesterday.
I believe they were related to over-reporting clerical
issues the day before. We're getting some bounce in mumber
on day 7 or 8k, then over 10k out of the blue on a day
when the numbers shoudn't be moving up or down in those
directions due to the day of the week.
Look at this as an example. On a Tuesday when numbers should be
growing due to it being a higher reporting day, this number fell
off considerably. That's not natural. We know because we have
studied the numbers here for months on end. When something unusual
happens, we know right away.
Please take note of the Resolved Percentage level on the right.
It is headed down these days.
The number is significant enough now to take note of it daily.
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here are more of our numbers...
Active Cases rose by 87,396 cases yesterday.
Serious/Critical cases rose again.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our slice of the pie has been decreasing recently.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.
The struggle continues, as we now move back up again.
Active Cases in the United States / Chart
Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point with this one.
Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.
Not seeing any signs of New Case declaration numbers softening.
Active Cases will be going up further.
Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup
Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.
Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary as much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.
Testing fell off to a more normal vicinity yesterday, but it was still
a very high number.
The 14-day is the important thing to note here. It fell off for the first
time since 10/10. We'll see how long that lasts. The single day makes it
clear this won't be the new trend for a while.
That 14-day rising line is hard to take. Look at that thing.
The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers. I may be wrong
not to do so, but I don't plan to put much weight in those figures for a
few days until they normalize.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to watch.
The New Case Declarations line is moving on up.
The Active Case line is rising.
United States Movers and Shakers...
I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.
Here we go...
Illinois and Texas took the top spots yesterday.
The day before we saw four states over 10,000 New Cases again. That looks
fishy to me. These states show 6 or 7k one day and 10k the next.
Then they move back down the next day.
Look where Lousiana is there. It's 21st today. It's at 2,626. It had
over 10,000 New Cases a few days back. That's what I'm talking about.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
New Case declarations rose by 44,155 cases yesterday.
The Resolved Percentage reversed course and rose up for the day.
Please take a look back up the column to see it's changes recently.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
Active Cases rose by 116,088 cases yesterday. That was better than
the day before.
Check out the Serious/Critical cases there. They went up considerably.
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Let's see...
The middle number rose yesterday, it being a higher reporting
day of the week.
Our blue column fell off.
The blue line there... well... &%#! X*!#?
Are we seeing an indication of moderation there? Hope so...
The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart
As in the United States' version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.
Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
Global Active Cases are growing considerably. In the last 30 days they have
added over 4 million new cases, at least two-thirds of what was accumulated
in the prior seven months.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)
Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
Ug!
The best way to read these line charges, is to take each individual
nation and compare what it's doing now in relation to what it was
doing.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?
Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
Sweden had flattened out a bit after that correction a while back, but it
is drifting up at an excellerated pace now. Norway seems to be making
a move also.
The best way to read these line changes, is to take each individual
nation and compare what it's doing now in relation to what it was
doing.
The Netherlands... yikes.
Global Movers and Shakers...
I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.
Here we go...
The United States took both categories again yesterday.
Look at that spread there in New Cases. Not liking that.
Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Agveraging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
The Active Case chart line is turning up. Sorry to see it.
In the United States chart like this one, the Recoveries, and Resolved
Case lines have not shown near the strength as is revealed here with these
upward bound lines.
That chart is provided here, in a small version, but you can see it full size
if you right click view.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.002% of today's total global numbers.
(this was larger than normal change here, and there may have been
something I didn't pick on - keep that in mind as you review this)
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
The Resolved percentage have been declining recenty, but here it moved up.
Folks should view up the column to see what the trend here has been
recently.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Active Cases rose by 116,059 cases yesterday. That was better
than the day before, and by recent standards a very moderate number.
The Serious/Critical cases were on the rise.
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
>
Here is the data for four entities...
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.
Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
Fatalities rose across the board in accordance with the higher reporting
days.
Now our number is very large there. It's the most Fatalities on one day
since 11/03, and before that 08/21.
Both those figures may have been manual correction related, because days
around them were no where close to those figures.
Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.
Here, let's look at data for the United States broken out by itself.
Our Fatalities rose on Tuesday, as is expected on that day weekly.
I'm wondering if these Monday and Tuesday reports of high numbers are
related to lower counts on the weekend, when reports are so low.
Mondays are a lower reporting day, but generally bigger than Sunday.
Looking at the last week on the right, we notice there were high numbers
all week.
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.
This area hasn't looked too good lately. Not good...
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
This data was developed so we could see the nations that pose a real threat
to our hopes of lower cases globally. These are only declared cases,
but it does help us to see where the large infectious communities
have been globally.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.
And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
We are seeing a weakening of the numbers to keep moving up at the pace
they have recently. That being said, we don't see numbers drop once they
has lost the strength to move up. We just see the numbers remain at
that level until they gain enough new strength to grow from there.
These are essentially base camps to the summit, whatever that summit is.
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.
There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.
These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China did not update that number until 09/02/20. On that date they
raised the number to 160,000,000. As of October 3rd, 2020, they haven't updeded
it again. So I do not inlude China in the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding
Testing, and any place that reports out global testing numbers for a top level
comparison.
Please note that global testing on the Dashboard was only deducting China's
90,410,000 figure from 09/02 through 10/02/2020. I should have been
deducting the 160,000,000 figure, and all global figures during that period
were 69,590,000 tests too high.
We remained in 18th place regarding Tests per million.
Section: 10
Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers
Listed in the order of current utilization...
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, Nations219,
and the CDC Provisional Counts53
Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats, November 18
Data from PA Department of Health, swept at midnight November 17-18.
LTC deaths = 6175 (increase of 71)
Total deaths = 9455 (increase of 110)
Cumulative LTC deaths as percentage of total = 65%
(Same percentage for today’s new LTC deaths)*
*However, today appears to be one of the midweek “statistical adjustments” which follow on the heels of relatively low LTC deaths (16 & 11).
D1
I don’t want to let you feel you are like the Maytag repairman waiting for a call.
Rest assured I have been following your daily postings and appreciating the all too many days and hours you have spent putting the numbers together.
I have had other commitments in the past weeks and then the election 2020 fiasco.
I thought interesting that as of today 256,206 people in the USA have died with or of covid. In three more months we will be able to compare the typical number of deaths in the USA to see if annual number of deaths was much higher than normal due to covid.
Personally, I lost my 99 year old uncle three weeks ago and he indeed died of covid. And three days later, his wife and my aunt and my godmother of 92 years died in her sleep with covid.
Both were counted among the 256,206 who have died with or of covid.
My condolences for your losses.
My wife lost a cousin in April...COVID infested LTC.
Two observations:
1. It was only about six or seven weeks ago we were flirting with going under the 14,000 number for serious/critical. Now we are going over 21,000, and still climbing. It is putting a strain on the health care system.
2. Illinois and Michigan are two of the most restrictive states on business and social activity. Yet they are at the top of the charts. The restrictions simply do not work.
As I said all along, you might slow the spread, but you won’t stop it. The disease is going to do what all pandemics have done throughout human history. It’s hubris to think we can stop it. The same hubris that believes that we can control the earth’s thermostat.
I lost my 97 year old aunt to this in April. Pennsylvania nursing home.
IL is on average really cranking out a lot of new (daily) cases, and reporting a lot of daily fatalities, for its population.
In nearby KY, the Governor has just reclosed schools and imposed a number of “heavy” restrictions on businesses, effective Friday. The Aldi I went to was bloody mobbed at 4 pm today. Wal Mart not quite so bad, but very busy and some shelves looked like March of this year. Esp. the toilet paper aisle! There were under 20 packages of TP (a few each of 3 different brands) left. Best available (and largest pack, too) was the Extra Strong Great Value brand, 12 = 48 pack. My Mom’s getting low, so, I got one. She really goes through TP & this stuff is just “fair quality”, so, hopefully we won’t see months of shortages again. The produce sections were not bad, but canned veggies were low. The checkout counter personnel at ALDI looked exhausted - I told the young lady at the one I went through that we customers sure did appreciate them working so hard for us. She seemed to really appreciate that.
Some restaurants that do mostly takeout are doing ok, but others, I fear, can’t take much more of this.
Question of the day: Which is more relentless ? A virus, or libs looking for power?
I agree with your take on it.
I think it’s best to go about life and let the chips fall
where they will.
Most people have very simple symptoms and need no
hospitalization.
This should have been treated like the seasonal flu from
the beginning.
Protect people in nursing homes as much as we can. Other
exposed people with health issues the same. Normal people,
just go about life like we do when the flu strikes each
year.
BTW, so sorry to hear about your aunt.
I can’t speak to Michigan, as I’ve not been there during COVID. But I have been in IL quite a bit. IL’s restrictions were “good enough” through the summer, from the standpoint of reducing infections, but I think their effectiveness was / is unsustainable as deployed. Eventually, extended heavy mitigation despite low numbers = mitigation fatigue. Plus many people simply tire of the media and pols hyperventilating every day. (Granted that some people seem to feed on it.) But later, when the bigger wave begins, “they are just crying wolf again” is the reaction by many, until the wave becomes a monster.
If we are to mitigate (I do as much as practical — I have a 90 y/o parent to protect and help care for), PROPER mitigation is tedious, time consuming, and just generally a big PITA. It is on scales large down to individual, economically, socially, and psychologically damaging and costly. It becomes wearisome, resented, and just plain depressing. Positive and creative support, not this whiny crap we get from most Governors and our other so-called leaders, could help, but other than Pres. Trump’s positive attitude and exhortation to “don’t let it dominate you” (which I did NOT take as “don’t protect yourself and others”), where is positive leadership?
On a practical level, one thing that has jumped out at me is that through the summer, most grocery stores and others stopped disinfecting / cleaning carts, usually just putting up a wipes and maybe a sanitizer dispenser @ the entrance so customers could “self service” the cleaning. Many did not, but sometimes the dispensers were still empty. Then in October through the present the empty dispenser problem got much worse. Today, NO store I went to had sanitizing wipes at the entrance, though the empty dispensers were there. At Aldi, where the possibility of virus spread via the carts is especially high, this is problematic as all get out.
Further, while these governors have been plenty good at issuing orders, they have been lazy as hell at actually doing positive things to make them work. Are we reminded daily or given advice regarding proper mask materials, usage and etiquette? Have governors been doing ANYTHING to get quality N95’s to families taking care of elderly relatives? Where is positive reinforcement from them to address people’s spirit? And so on.
Then we have KY’s whiney Beshear, telling citizens they all need to get tested regularly, say, every 2 weeks. What? Run the numbers — this would require testing at a level literally 10x the present astonishing testing numbers. Again, where are the frequent PSA’s regarding who should be tested, where is testing available, etc.? (Some local media has been advising the latter in newscasts, but, sorry, this stuff, if it is helpful, needs to be popping up when people are on social media, watching TV in general, etc.)
Virtually no one on any side of this is discussing or pointing these obvious things out. As a result we get too many deaths and injuries, overly heavy-handed mandates, a badly damaged country, and a destroyed economy and lives.
Whatever differences we may have on FR, my sincerest condolences and prayers to anyone who has lost a loved one from COVID, or anything else, for that matter.
I am “lucky” I suppose, that the closest person to me to succumb to COVID-19 or a complication, so far, is my best friend’s Dad. I considered him one of my role models, so that was still a bit tough to learn of, esp. because he was isolated and his family could not see him & comfort him near the end. That had to be very hard for his family.
Best wishes and prayers for you all.
Your comment has many very good observations. There has been a catastrophic failure of leadership at all levels in every major institution. The pandemic didn’t build character, it just revealed it.
[She really goes through TP & this stuff is just “fair quality”, so, hopefully we won’t see months of shortages again.]
Thanks - that’s actually a quite good idea, for multiple reasons. I’d assumed they were a lot pricier.
Biggest problem will be that Mom’s water is dang cold in the winter. Best solution would be a reservoir that stores some water allowed to come up to room temperature. (Hot water would take a long time to get there.)
Next biggest problem is that space around her toilet is really tight - ANY work there is a big PITA, but, eldest son (me), duty calls...
Hey, Mom, for your birthday...
[Biggest problem will be that Mom’s water is dang cold in the winter. Best solution would be a reservoir that stores some water allowed to come up to room temperature. (Hot water would take a long time to get there.)]
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.