Posted on 03/26/2021 7:23:35 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Do you have your scorecards ready? We’re going to do our best to sort out the results of this week’s elections in Israel, the fourth in a period of just two years (can you imagine that?). But first, a disclaimer: by the time you read this article, the outcome may have changed. That’s how inconclusive the final voting turned out to be.
A shift in affiliation by one of the many parties receiving votes could change things overnight. Plus, on Friday, 450,000 double-sealed votes will be counted (including military votes, votes from abroad, and votes sent in because of COVID). That could shift things as well.
Let’s start with an overview of how a government is formed in Israel.
The Knesset (Parliament) has 120 seats, and so, to form a government, you need 61 seats. The problem is that there are many parties in Israel, quite the opposite of our two party system in America, in which smaller parties are virtually meaningless. And in Israel, although the parties are led by prominent personalities, you vote for a party rather than a person. How many seats will your party get?
In the current situation, Likud, the rightwing party of Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving Prime Minister in the nation’s history (and dubbed “Melekh,” or “King”), won only 30 seats, down from 36 in the 2020 elections.
However, Blue and White (a centrist party), which won 33 seats in 2020 and formed a coalition government with Likud, only won 8 seats (which was actually more than was expected). Talk about a sudden collapse.
Ironically, it was Blue and White’s willingness to work together with Likud in 2020 that helped bring about its demise, as the party leader, Benny Gantz, was ridiculed for agreeing to serve in a rotating government with Netanyahu.
The reality is that Gantz never served a day as Prime Minister, as new elections were forced before the transition took place.
Too bad for Gantz and Blue and White. (One of my Israeli friends told me that the only one in Israel who actually thought Netanyahu would share power with Gantz was Gantz himself.)
What other parties received enough votes to make the threshold for gaining at least four seats in the Knesset?
Yesh Atid (meaning “There Is a Future”; it is centrist-right and is led by the up and coming Yair Lapid) won 18 seats.
Shas (ultra-Orthodox, rightwing) won 9 seats.
Yamina (rightwing, nationalist, led by Naftali Bennett) won 7 seats.
UTJ (which stands for United Torah Judaism and is also ultra-Orthodox, rightwing) won 7 seats.
Yisrael Beitenu (meaning, “Israel Our Home”; it is center-right and Russian dominated, led by Avigdor Lieberman) won 7 seats.
Labor (center-left), for many years the main rival to Likud but now a shell of itself, won 7 seats.
New Hope (center-right to right) won 6 seats.
Joint List (leftwing, representing Arab Israelis) won 6 seats.
Meretz (leftwing) won 6 seats.
Religious Zionism (ultra-Orthodox, rightwing) won 6 seats.
UAL (the United Arab List, also known as Raam) which is Islamist and is center-left to leftwing) won 4 seats.
Did I tell you that you needed a scorecard?
Now, imagine you’re a Christian conservative living in America, but you have four parties from which to choose.
Party #1 is strongly pro-life but advocates open borders and is for strict gun control. Party #2 is strongly pro-Israel and big on Second Amendment rights but is pro-abortion. Party #3 is strong on marriage and family and opposes LGBT activism but is also anti-Israel. Party #4 is excellent on the economy, national defense, and national security but is radically pro-LGBT.
Which party gets your vote?
Now, multiply that in Israel when you have 13 parties winning enough votes to gain seats in the Knesset and about 10 more parties also vying for your vote.
And, if you’re pro-Bibi Netanyahu, because he has been so strong on national security, but you oppose the ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, because of the control they exert over the nation, then how do you vote? The reality is that Bibi can only form a government with the help of these religious-right parties, so a vote for the one is virtually a vote for the other.
How is that scorecard doing?
Even the smallest party can make the ultimate difference, tipping the balance of power in one direction or another. That’s because, without that party, a majority cannot be formed, giving them the role of kingmaker.
Think of it like this. If you played baseball when you were a kid, not everyone had a bat or balls. So, you round up some kids to play, and you see one boy running down the block to join you, but he’s the worst player. No one wants him on their team.
The problem is that he’s the only one with a good bat and new baseballs, so you have to include him.
It’s the same with the smaller parties in Israel. They have the bat and balls, so to say.
Doing the math with the current electoral results, a rightwing coalition of Likud (30), Shas (9), Yamina (7), UTJ (7), and Religious Zionism (7) yields only 60 seats, one short of a majority.
Perhaps the Islamist party (UAL), with four seats, will join this coalition? This is actually being discussed, but it is highly unlikely, since the ideologies are too disparate. Plus, some of the rightwing religious parties would back out of the coalition should the UAL join. After all, this party represents what would be the equivalent of the Muslim Brotherhood. Can you imagine Bibi and the Brotherhood working together?
Then why won’t one of the other parties join the coalition, like Yisrael Beitenu? It’s because their leaders will not serve with Netanyahu. In fact, the various parties can almost be divided between pro-Bibi and anti-Bibi. He has become a dividing line.
If you do the math the other way, combining all the other parties, you end up with the same total of 60 even if they, almost miraculously, all agreed to work together.
That means there’s actually a possibility that yet another election will be needed. Talk about a divided nation.
On Axios, Barak Ravid has offered 5 potential scenarios that could unfold, all of which are highly uncertain.
Other analyses, of which there are many, come to the same uncertain conclusions.
So, despite Likud having the strongest turnout by far, they lost seats since the last election and Netanyahu does not have a clear path to victory. Consequently, at least for the moment, we are left with uncertainty.
That’s one reason that, when I pray for Israel, my prayer is often, “Your will be done, Lord!” Who can figure out what is best for the Israelis, the Palestinians, and the region?
Israeli elections are as complex and diverse as the nation itself. So, I pray, “Have Your way, Lord! Things down here are quite confusing. Only you can sort this out.” (And, of course, He sees everything in light of His eternal plan. All the more reason to pray for His intervention.)
*Note that different news outlets report slightly different numbers for some of the parties, but none of those differences affect the contents of this article.
Are they using Dominion voting machines?
HA HA!
Whatever happened to the lefties trying to prosecute Netanyahu?
Does anyone know what the record number of elections is in a (mature) parliamentary system within the same time span?
Four has got to be close to that record, if it’s not one itself.
Nope.
Prosecution of Netanyahu is still ongoing. There are certain delays as long as N is PM.
There’s some thought that N might run for President of Israel, protecting him from prosecution while allowing Yamina (Bennett) to join a right-center-religious bloc government with a stable majority.
How many seats did the Judean People’s Front win?
The weirdest thing (at least to me) about these parliamentary democracies is the who/what/where/when/how of an election being called for/forced.
Long before the Beit HaMikdash was built, there were two brothers lived and farmed in what is now Jerusalem.
One was married and had a large family while the other was single. They lived in close proximity to each other and each worked his land growing wheat. When harvest time arrived, each was blessed with a bountiful crop and piled up his grain for long-term storage. The unmarried brother, observing his good fortune, thought to himself that Hashem had blessed him with more than he needed, whereas his brother, who was blessed with a large family, could surely use more.
The first brother arose in the middle of the night and secretly took from his grain and put it in his brother’s pile.
At the same time, the second brother, the married brother, thought to himself that he was fortunate to have children who will care for him in his old age, while his brother will depend on what he saved. He, too, arose in the middle of the night and quietly transferred grain from his pile to his brother’s.
In the morning, each pondered why there was no noticeable decrease in his own pile and so they repeated the transfer the next night. These nocturnal activities went on for several nights, until one night the brothers bumped into each other on the hill that divided their fields.
In that instant, in the dark of night, the glow of brotherly love lit up the sky above the hill; they each understood what the other had been doing and fell into each other’s arms in a loving embrace.
When Hashem saw that display of hat display of brotherly love, He selected the site for His Temple.
Now, as this was going on, there were two other brothers, who, instead of each surreptitiously gifting grain to the other, are actually stealing from each other.
One evening these other two brothers bump into each other on a second hill, each holding a bag of wheat that he has just stolen from his brother. They proceeded to beat the crap out of each other and both died on the hill.
On his second hill is built the Israeli Knesset.
Looks like seven, but they have some splitters.
Looks like if you have 2 Israelis in a room, you will have 3 political parties :)
They should have a cut-off limit for % of votes for the parties - in Germany I believe that is 10%. In Poland it is 5%
Heh heh, I know now you must live in Poland.
It’s the ‘People’s Front of Judea’.
How about the Popular Front? Isn’t that him over there?
How long before the Arab Party become the majority party and gets rid of the Jews in their country?
No that’s Benny.
Huh?
In a surprising gain, the Arab Party now controls the balance. The other two parties do not have a majority. So which of the other two the Arab Party sides with will determine who wins.
The Arab Party may be tiny but it has grown over the past decades. At some point it will no linger be tiny.
The Knesset (Parliament) has 120 seats... Likud... won only 30 seats... Shas... won 9 seats... UTJ (which stands for United Torah Judaism...) won 7 seats... Religious Zionism... won 6 seats.
Yamina... won 7 seats.
Yisrael Beitenu... won 7 seats.
Labor (center-left), for many years the main rival to Likud but now a shell of itself, won 7 seats.
New Hope (center-right to right) won 6 seats.
52 seats on that first excerpted line, 27 more seats (and including Labor wasn't an accident) possible, Bibi only needs 9. If he can bring Labor aboard, in the next election (y'know, six months from now) the remaining Labor voters will jump to other parties and Labor will no longer be any more a threat than Blue and White. ;^)
Demographics / birth rates / infant survival / longevity all favor an increasing Jewish majority in Israel.
Unfortunately, Israeli Jews seem to be more and more liberal with suicidal urges coming more to the front, but still not as strong as they were when Peres was alive; so demographics, etc are no guarantee of future Israeli Jew political control of Israel.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.