“0 chance they leave $1.5 trillion on the table.”
Right now they also have to salvage the $1.2T bill, so $2.7T.
They tested Manchin and Sinema, and they won’t go below the $2.7T total (and it’s not clear that Sinema will even go for the $1.5T, although Manchin will).
Bottom line, they find a way to get the $2.7T through and call it a huge victory, claiming that the other $2.3T was just a negotiation throw-away...just as you’re saying.
If they get 2.7 trillion it would be a huge win (for Democrats).