Ukraine’s Recent Drone Strike Reignites Tensions in Donbass

Russia says the use of Turkish drones near the Line of Contact is a violation of the Minsk Agreement, but Ukraine begs to differ.

kraine’s purchase and deployment of Turkish combat drones has reignited the territorial conflict simmering its eastern border, with some warning of the likelihood of further escalation.

Kiev is moving forward with plans to procure dozens of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs). The acquisition is part of a larger defense cooperation venture with Ankara involving the production of Bayraktar drones on Ukrainian soil.

It was revealed earlier this week that a Ukrainian Bayraktar drone destroyed a separatist artillery piece in the Donbass region during its first combat mission. Rodion Miroshnik, a representative of the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR), accused Kiev of violating the Minsk Agreements: “In September 2014, Kiev signed a memorandum envisaging a straightforward ban on flights of combat aviation and foreign unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). But [Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander Valery] Zaluzhny is reporting flights and even combat use of UAVs along the line of contact. Therefore, he just does not give a damn about Kiev’s obligations under the Minsk Agreements.” Miroshnik’s contentions were echoed by Germany’s Foreign Office, which noted in a statement that Berlin was “very concerned” about the drone strike and that the Minsk accords authorize drones to be used only by the OSCE mission.

What supports this idea? Ukrainians and Baltic states are certainly pushing the idea but there is no evidence to it whatsoever and every escalation is of their own, to keep themselves in a news cycle.

If you have access to the Ukrainian media you know that the narratives are radically different between the Ukrainian official statements to the West and what is told to the domestic audience.

That is particularly gross regarding the Minsk agreements to reintegrate Donbas, where internationally they claim that they want them implemented except ‘the Russians’ drag on it by violating ceasefire.

For domestic audience they say that the Minsk accords are a Putin’s diversion and shouldn’t be followed, because Russia wants to give back Donbas as a Trojan horse to later influence Ukrainian politics as a whole.

The main point of Minsk is amnesty to the insurgents, to have free elections and federal autonomy in the region. It is supported by the West and Russia, but Ukraine according to the statements to the foreign audience agrees, except can’t move further because you know, the ceasefire comes first.

Domestically they say no amnesty and elections, and adopts the opposite laws, depriving Donbas residents of electoral rights for the years to come, and adopting ‘lustration’ legislation, stipulating the prosecution of ‘collaborators’ including school teachers and firefighters and the rest in public sector of the rebel authority, where the rest supposed to be ‘vetted’.

Look at their media propaganda catering for rebel areas. It is designed to scare the populations into submission.

Putin made it clear that Crimea is a case closed but he views Ukraine as an independent country with Donbas in. The single condition is neutrality meaning no foreign military presence in Ukraine.
It is in his recent op-ed heavily misinterpreted by Ukraine.

Medvedev wrote another one, and more blunt for people who don’t understand the subtle diplomatic language.

There is exactly zero value in Ukraine for Russia at this point. Everything Russia used to get from Ukraine in the Soviet Era and since Ukrainian independence it gets domestically or from other sources over last 8 years. The last tie is the gas transit to Europe Russia is trying to finish to make the divorce complete. Such total divestment doesn’t take place if someone plans to take over the country.

Think for one moment why Ukraine is so wildly opposing the NSII pipeline.

It realized, that after pipeline is online their value for Russia would be exactly zero, and so would be their geopolitical value for the West, which views them as a thorn in a Russian butt to stroke time to time.

The violations of ceasefire is a joke. Look at the casualties from both sides. On the rebel side it is exclusively civilians, mostly women, children and elderly. On the Ukrainian side it is exclusively the military, because all the ‘violations’ by the rebel side is counter-battery.

The drone strike was one in the recent Ukrainian attempts to escalate, including the abduction of LDNR liason, and occupation of the towns in DMZ.

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