Many believed that one year ago, including me. I actually don't perceive any deterioration from last year. Maybe it's so slow that we don't notice, but that suggests that he won't be too much worse in 2024. Maybe enough that people in his inner circle will be able to tell, but not enough to affect his carefully managed public appearances.
With Alzheimer’s people seldom or never improve. They plateau or get worse. If a person with vascular dementia does not have any further strokes, then they may have no further deterioration.This could be Biden.
I think you answered your own question. You have not noticed a difference in the past year of his cognitive abilities, because he is being managed so strictly.
His actual personal appearances are very few. Even then, and with his drugs, he still is incoherent for part of the appearance.