Trump’s Senate picks are stumbling, says Politico

Powerlineblog ^ | November 28, 2021 | Paul Meringoff

[lasereye]

Some of them, anyway. Donald Trump has endorsed candidates in 15 Senate contests to date, according to Politico. Many of them are incumbent Senators. They are expected to cruise to renomination by the GOP. But, says Politico, some of the others are struggling.

Politico cites Mo Brooks in Alabama, Kelly Tshibaka in Alaska, Ted Budd in North Carolina, and Sean Parnell in Pennsylvania (Parnell recently withdrew from the race due to allegations of spousal abuse). Trump hasn’t endorsed Blake Masters, but did appear at a Mar-a-Logo fundraiser for the Arizona Republican. Masters is also struggling, according to Politico.

I don’t know enough about the races in question to say whether, or to what extent, these Trump-endorsed candidates actually are struggling. But to the extent Trump is basing his endorsement decisions on whether candidates back his unsubstantiated claim that he lost the election because of voter fraud, it stands to reason that some of these candidates are struggling. Subscribing to Trump’s excuse for losing is not a good indicator of a candidate’s fitness for the Senate.

Nor, I suspect, are most Republican voters interested in looking in the rear view mirror the way Trump obsessively does. Not with all the patches of bother that lie ahead.

Yet, Trump does appear to be basing his preferences in GOP primaries to a significant degree on loyalty to his claim that last year’s election was stolen from him. Politico points out that Trump appeared at Masters’ fundraiser one day after Masters released a video declaring that “Trump won in 2020.”

In Maryland, Trump has endorsed Dan Cox, a conservative state legislator, for governor. In announcing his endorsement, Trump described Cox as “a “tough lawyer and smart businessman” who “fought against the Rigged Presidential Election every step of the way.”

The “tough lawyer/smart businessman” part, though true for all I know, seems like boilerplate. The “rigged presidential election” part seems like the heart of the matter for Trump, which may explain why he capitalized the phrase.

I don’t mean to disparage Trump’s picks. I would probably vote for some of them if I could and might vote for Cox. (I wonder, though, whether Maryland would elect a candidate who insists that the 2020 presidential election was “rigged.” Glenn Youngkin felt the need to distance himself from that claim in Virginia, a less liberal state than Maryland.) But to the extent Trump is right to endorse the candidate he’s favoring, he’s right for the wrong reason, in my view.

In any case, what’s most interesting to me is that Trump’s endorsements don’t seem to be carrying as much weight as might have been expected. That, to some degree, is Politico’s take, anyway:

Trump may still have an iron grip on the Republican Party, but the limits of his powers are being exposed in 2022 Senate primaries. A number of his preferred Senate candidates are discovering that the former president’s endorsement is no guarantee of success in a crowded primary, leaving Trump to decide just how much political capital to further expend on their behalf.

“I think that Trump voters are ready, willing and able to take his word on a particular candidate they don’t know much about,” said Gregg Keller, a Republican political strategist who maintains that a Trump endorsement is “highly effective.” “But if and when he has made political mistakes along those lines, it’s been on behalf of the wrong candidate or not at the right time.”

In true Trumpian fashion, the former president is quite ready to disparage candidates who struggle after he endorses them. According to Politico, he’s expressed disillusionment with Mo Brooks as the former Alabama congressman lags in the polls.

My question in that case is the same as the one I asked when, with some regularity, Trump threw former top officials and advisers in his administration under the bus: What genius selected these people?

[lasereye]

In the Alaska race, a June Change Research poll had Murkowski getting just 19% in a four way race

Last month Alaska Survey Research had a very different result. If both the June poll and this one are accurate, she's lost 40% of the support she had in June, with virtually all of it switching to Murkowski. The October poll implies that a third of Palin's voters would go to Murkowski in round 2, which seems surprising, and that about 80% of Gray-Jackson voters switch to Murkowski in round 3, which is no surprise.

ROUND 1:

Murkowski 35
Tshibaka 23
Gray-Jackson 22
Palin 20

Palin eliminated

ROUND 2:

Murkowski 42
Tshibaka 35
Gray-Jackson 23

Gray-Jackson eliminated

ROUND 3:

Murkowski 60
Tshibaka 40— Ivan Moore (@IvanMoore1) November 1, 2021

[lasereye]

If both the June poll and this one are accurate, she's lost 40% of the support she had in June

I meant Tshibaka has lost 40% of the support she had in June.

[DarrellZero]

Paul Meringoff hates Trump.

I take his posts with a generous grain of salt.

[TChad]

I trust the other Powerline guys. Not Paul.

[HollyB]

They’d be wise to remember Trump isn’t in office, Biden is. And he’s stumbled, and fallen, and can’t get up.

[cynicalman]

I am a Trump supporter. Have been . But i fear he still does not and will not get the support of suburban wonen. He will not win if he runs in 2024

[Jamestown1630]

And Biden is a xenophobe and racist, for shutting down flights from all of those POC countries.

[Williams]

And you believe polls why?

[Jamestown1630]

What exactly do you think the makeup is of this generic ‘suburban woman’ you reference?

(this ‘suburban woman’ would like to know.)

[rhinohunter]

This is perfectly illustrative of why the elites are pushing so hard for ranked choice voting.

Ranked choice voting leverages the power of the fake news to demonize the Conservative/Populist candidate in any given race.

[TakebackGOP]

It’s a year before the 2022 Midterms. I hope they run challengers against the state reps and secretaries of state.

[frogjerk]

Did he get the support of suburban women in 2016?

[dragnet2]

Trump is basing his endorsement decisions on whether candidates back his unsubstantiated claim that he lost the election because of voter fraud

How soon some forget. If they'll criminally attempt to undermine, compromise and overthrow a legitimately elected president, they'll sure in hell commit vote/election fraud, if everything else failed.

[lasereye]

This has nothing to do with Mirengoff. It’s two polls. The first showed one Murkowski in trouble. The second doesn’t.

[SoConPubbie]

I am a Trump supporter. Have been . But i fear he still does not and will not get the support of suburban wonen. He will not win if he runs in 2024

Sure you are Naysayer!

[Bullish]

...unsubstantiated claim?

Which will remain that way since all of these "journalist" types refused to even think about investigating any claims of fraud at all.

[Freedom56v2]

I think Trump is enjoying more support than ever from suburban moms. I think his support is only going to grow. They are upset and concerned about mask mandates, vax mandates, CRT, having transgenders take their girl’s athletic slots and scholarships, higher food prices/supply chain issues, and higher gas and heating oil prices.

Did I leave anything out? ;)

[Gaffer]

I notice no mention of Herschel Walker was made....

[Radix]

Trump won in 2020. The tally’s were corrupted by computer and outright video recorded episodes of the collection of phony votes and much more. Why would you suppose that such who voted for him would be disinclined to do so again?

I think that the exact opposite is likely.

Can you even detect at all what this Fake Biden regime is doing? He is destroying the country before our eyes.

[wiseprince]

My own theory is that Biden votes were being printed even before the Primaries were completed which is why it was so important to make sure he got the nomination. They been planning this vote by mail scheme for a long time. I’m not convinced that Trump didn’t fall for the covid play.