Posted on 03/05/2022 10:54:18 PM PST by Zhang Fei
After a Russian artillery battalion was destroyed while attempting to circle Kharkiv and a Russian fighter jet was shot down over Kyiv, people began to characterise Russia’s invasion as a quote “failed Blitzkrieg.”
I had a realisation.
Russia is using nearly 100 year old Deep operation
strategies developed by the Soviet military theorist Vladimir Triandafillov
. The strategy is the exact opposite of American and British doctrine of superiority and overwhelming firepower.
There are only two main movement differences between the USSR’s reconquest of Ukraine in 1943 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022:
Unlike how the US and UK do mobile warfare, which is where enemies are suppressed at the line of contact, or flanked from behind to the line of contact, in Russian Deep Operation, the goal is to make the line of contact irrelevant and induce failure in the enemies formations—forcing them to fall back, often to an encircled position.
Another difference between this strategy and traditional American or British doctrine, is that Deep Operation seeks to achieve a political goal, instead of a tactical advantage. Instead of war being merely the continuation of politics with other means, war is politics in a more literal sense with no separation.
Putin has announced his political goal to the world: to ‘punish’ the quote ‘Nazi’ politicians of Ukraine, who are led by a Jew.
However, one problem with this strategy is that Russia currently has 1/10th the number of troops the USSR did in World War II, and the US is not supplying Russia through Lend-Lease with extra trucks, food, and logistic support. I suspect that Deep Operation is so inherently costly that it will require a massive capitalist manufacturing base to support it.
Another issue is that technology is a lot more advanced than it was in World War II. The striking distance of aircraft, air defences, and artillery is much further. Russian troops behind enemy lines are at risk of being killed by a lot more moving parts than they were in World War II.
Finally, in World War II the countryside mostly supported Soviet troops against the Nazis. However, in Ukraine, most of the countryside is actively resisting Russian troops. Every Russian unit sent in behind enemy lines is susceptible to being completely surrounded and cut off from the logistics train. We are already witnessing Russian mobile infantry units stranded on the side of the road in APCs, completely out of gas.
In other words Russia is exposing its troops to extreme risk, rushing in ass-first with undefended artillery and helicopters, to encircle Kyiv and capture or kill public enemy No 1: Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
It remains to be seen whether Russia can actually achieve its goals with this much smaller force, against a hostile countryside and armed populace, with its forces exposed on all sides.
We also need to keep in mind that Russia is currently deploying 70,000 of its Spetsnaz and professional army and naval infantry forces. Most of that remaining 120,000 troops sitting in Belarus and in Russia are probably barely-trained conscripts and reservists—who the Russian military probably intended to give experience through mopping up the last bits of resistance.
Edit:
A few comments have argued that Russia is not bombing Ukraine at all, or that they are holding back and only hitting very specific targets—that Russia could eliminate all of Ukraine’s air defenses in a few hours (maybe two hours), but have chosen not to out of the goodness of their hearts, or because they want a less damaged Ukraine to rule over.
This is not the case. Without using nuclear warheads, no country on Earth could eliminate Ukraine’s air defenses in two days, let alone two hours.
There are a limited number of firing platforms any military can use. The US fired 154 missiles at Iraq during the first 48 hours of the 2003 invasion of Iraq
.
Russia fired around 160 missiles
in the first 48 hours of declaring war on Ukraine.
The skies of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other cities are lit up by fire just like Baghdad was:
The difference is, the US kept this up for nearly three weeks before deploying the first boots on the ground.
Russia instead sent in troops during the first hour of the invasion. They have fired missiles and dropped bombs with a similar intensity to an American-style shock and awe attack, but probably haven’t destroyed even a third of Ukraine’s air defenses.
In fact, Ukraine still has ample offensive air abilities, including Turkish-made drones
—drones which take a lot less training to operate than a fighter jet.
Edit of an edit:
Allegedly, Ukrainian units captured a Russian operational plan a few days ago, now posted on Euromaiden press:
I cannot verify the veracity of the document, but according to the document, Russia planned to conquer Ukraine in 15 days. The military had received permission to start the op as early as Feb 20th.
The photos of the action plans show rapid punches through enemy lines, with units encircling the Ukrainians from the front, consistent with strategies developed in WWII:
Finally, in World War II the countryside mostly supported Soviet troops against the Nazis. However, in Ukraine, most of the countryside is actively resisting Russian troops. Every Russian unit sent in behind enemy lines is susceptible to being completely surrounded and cut off from the logistics train. We are already witnessing Russian mobile infantry units stranded on the side of the road in APCs, completely out of gas.
Part of the problem for Russian troops is the fact that they are being treated like the German enemy were. All Russian troops had to do in WWII was mostly fight Axis formations. In Ukraine today, they have to worry about civilians providing intel to, hiding and feeding Ukrainian troops. And providing info is so much easier thanks to modern smartphones.
The Nazis blew an opportunity in Ukraine. The country was oppressed by the Soviets so if the Nazis weren’t so barbaric, they would have received support from the Ukrainian population against the Red Army.
[The Nazis blew an opportunity in Ukraine. The country was oppressed by the Soviets so if the Nazis weren’t so barbaric, they would have received support from the Ukrainian population against the Red Army.]
Personally I do think it was a failed blitzkrieg attempt
Have you seen the supposed FSB whistle-blower letter?
https://twitter.com/pourteaux/status/1500207988321226754
The writer, supposedly an FSB officer, actually uses the term “Ukrainian blitzkrieg.”
He describes the political imperatives compelling the blitzkrieg approach, but points out that even in the event of the successful capture of Zelensky in the first few days of the operation, the political options for the Russians would be rather less than ideal.
If it is a fake, it is very interesting fake and kudos to the faker
Another note on official Russian casualties - 500 in 1 week - on average, I’d say the average person *anywhere* today isn’t quite as thrilled to be the equivalent of toilet paper for some national leader to wipe his rear end with, no matter who that leader is. 500 is 1/2 the average Russian KIA in Afghanistan for an entire year. I suspect Putin is going to run into serious problems taking casualty numbers at ~25x its reported Afghan War rate per week with half the Russian population that it had during the Afghan campaign. All those single son families are gonna be screaming bloody murder.
When you compare Afghanistan to Vietnam, it’s remarkable how much less punishment in body count terms the Russians were able to take before hitting their uncle point. The official Russian KIA number in Afghanistan was 13,000 over about 10 years, which is roughly 1/5 the US number in Vietnam. When you think about the coercive powers of the totalitarian Soviet state vs the anything goes milieu of 60’s and 70’s America - it’s amazing the US hung in there so long.
[Personally I do think it was a failed blitzkrieg attempt
Have you seen the supposed FSB whistle-blower letter?
https://twitter.com/pourteaux/status/1500207988321226754
The writer, supposedly an FSB officer, actually uses the term “Ukrainian blitzkrieg.”
He describes the political imperatives compelling the blitzkrieg approach, but points out that even in the event of the successful capture of Zelensky in the first few days of the operation, the political options for the Russians would be rather less than ideal.
If it is a fake, it is very interesting fake and kudos to the faker]
Mentioned in the headline - but mentioned no where else in the entire article!
Misleading!
Regards,
[Why is Putin fighting so sloppily in Ukraine, or does he think he is fighting neatly, thanks to Russia’s top-secret mobile crematorium?
Mentioned in the headline - but mentioned no where else in the entire article!
Misleading!
Regards, ]
bookmark
I wasn't faulting you.
But I hate articles that don't provide at least a summarized answer to the headline question in the first paragraph.
Regards,
Second this.
This article is, among all that clutter on the web, one which really discusses Russian actions and failures.
The Russians are using hundred year old strategy. which used to work for them for long time.
Deep attacks with spec forces followed by mass of poorly trained draftees to mop up.
However Russian army is a lot smaller than it used to be, the spec forces did not pan out too well because Ukrainians were ready and countryside reported on them.
So now, the poor draftees, who were there just to get some exposure, are supposed to win the war. I feel for them, sort of.
The same strategy was implemented in 1968 in Czechoslovakia (very successfully), in Afghanistan 1979 (initial success, but then long nightmare) and Chechnya (long nightmare with eventual success).
The Russians are not very innovative!
It seems that Ukrainians are very familiar with this strategy and know how to fight it.
I remember, when the Chechen war was raging, the Chechens mentioned, they are not that afraid of Russians, because they know their strategy and how they fight.
The Chechens won the first war, but then mismanaged the peace, which led to the second war.
Is there a pic of this mobile crematorium? Certainly the US has spy sats tasked to image the battle perhaps even some SR71 flights? It’s heat plume should make it EZ to spot as well as the tanker truck of nat gas needed to run the thing should be close by.
I want to know what this mobile crematorium does what they ashes?
I’m assuming it just spews them out like a wood chipper, or are collected in a bin and dumped later.
Yes. Good point
Crematoria not as “Top Secret” as some would have us believe
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4042904/posts
Time is not on Putin’s side.
The longer this goes on, the bigger of a disaster it will be for Russia.
Even another week.
Economic and logistical constraints are mounting.
Some folks need to get to work planning for a potential next regime in Russia.
Good read. The western analysis is responding as if Russia is another U.S. or NATO country fighting in the same way. Russia is invading in their own way for their own goals. Treating them as if they are the U.S. with different weapons is mistake.
The only reason the Russians are showing restraint is because they are trying to force a negotiated settlement.
Methodical piss poor execution of military tactics.
Restraint? They are leveling population centers, targeting civilians purposefully.
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