Posted on 04/11/2022 10:25:11 AM PDT by marcusmaximus
There are several ways of looking at this.
A count of tanks, live or dead, is a good proxy for both force levels and overall losses, given Russian force structure, where tanks are integrated down to the battalion. Tank losses would be roughly proportional to overall maneuver unit losses, especially so as tanks are substantially more survivable than everything else (infantry, APC), and indeed we are seeing 1000+ lost “other” combat vehicles. When the Ukrainian operation started there were estimated 1,200 tanks deployed with the @200,000 troops. 450 is 37.5% of the tank force, and such losses imply a similar overall loss to the maneuver units of the total force. Thats a very large loss in capability, the ability to attack or defend.
Add to that the certainty that not all lost tanks have had their pictures taken. Conservatively, let us put it at an estimate of 600. Thats half of the combat ability of the initial force. Imagine losing half your pieces on the chessboard.
Russia theoretically has 12,000 tanks, but the vast majority of those are from the Soviet era, very obsolete even against the simplest AT weapons like RPG’s, as seen in Grozny. And who knows what proportion of those are even in operating order.
And then consider the loss of trained crews, which implies similar losses in the other branches of the maneuver units (paratroops, mech infantry, recon, etc.).
These men are not so easily replaced as pulling an obsolete tank out of storage.
But CAN Russia take anything more? Russia hasnt got unlimited men or equipment.
It cant touch its reserves to create a classic Russian “steamroller” without fully mobilizing, which its been reluctant to do for political reasons, and which would take many months to get into gear in any case.
It has very limited industrial capacity to make current-class equipment, a drop in the bucket, ex. it was only making @100 new tanks annually, so that “steamroller” would look like something out of a 1985 “Fulda Gap” scenario.
And there is the very important matter of a cadre for those mobilized reservists. As far as anyone knows that is short too.
Militia (and there seems to be a couple of hundred thousand of them) are very useful. They guard installations in rear areas, they act as a backstop for any breakthroughs that get past the front, and as we have seen they can be very effective in this, they can serve in fixed defensive positions, they can be the “anvil” for the regular units “hammer”. And when left behind in an enemy advance they can harrass the enemy rear.
They arent just cannon fodder. They are exactly what the US political system intended in the 2nd Amendment. And looking at it more broadly, they are a political force of their own. It is certainly the case in the US. Is Zelensky commanding them, or is it their collective will that commands Zelensky?
So why didn’t they work as planned? Bad design? Poor workmanship? Or just the Hellfire too powerful? Hellfires have a 17 - 24lb payload.
I would sat workmanship. The bulkheads I saw appeared unbreached, just broken loose and slammed into the next which also broke loose. The driver’s compartment ended up smaller than a bread box. Wanted a set of Tanker Boots but all still had feet in them :/
During the last half of WW2 the Russians had the T-34. It was the best tank on the battlefield. It was 10+ mph faster than the panzer 3 or 4, had a V-12 diesel engine, more armor all around and the first sloped armor on any tank, the 3 inch high velocity gun could kill any tank encountered. The T-34 was also designed to be peasant friendly, they could train a peasant farm boy to operate one in a couple of weeks.
Early in the war few were produced but by the time the Russians bled the Germans dry at Stalingrad the T-34 was being produced quickly and in sufficient quantities to overwhelm the German armor. They used their tanks like they used their artillery; in vast numbers creating superior firepower. German Generals von Kleist and Guderian pronounced the T-34 the finest tank built.
Using Kursk as a guideline is deceptive. Stalin knew where the Germans were going to launch their armored attack and Hitler delayed the offensive, giving the Russians plenty of time to set a trap. Guderian begged to attack somewhere else but Hitler, ever the fatalist, pressed on. Game, set, match.
The Russians weren’t great with armor, they just had plenty to lose and didn’t mind using them.
Yeah, I mentioned the T-34 on another post.
Operation Citadel was doomed pretty much from the start, as the Brits had intercepted German communications and found out about the operation and so informed the Russians. Then, the Russians found some info at the site of a crashed Luftwaffe airplane that helped to confirm it. And, yes, Hitler’s delays gave the Russians just that more time to prepare and set up their traps.
I always had respect for Guderian as a tactician. I thought he was superior to Rommel in that regard (though Rommel got better press).
You may be right. US Failure to use our GIs to mop up Russia’s shattered “combat” units may prevent a total Russkie defeat. Time will tell.
However, the UK is providing Harpoon anti-ship missiles to the Ukraine. These will allow Ukraine to sink Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. When that fleet is sunk, Russia really won’t “need” Sevastopol or the Crimea any more.
Putin may then find he will have to negotiate the amount of REPARATIONS that Russia owes to Ukraine, and to the many countries that have helped Ukraine repel Putin’s foolish invasion.
Putin may also find that that the two oligarchs who are now being groomed to replace him, will act before he is “ready” to be pushed out.
And then — a bare-chested “summer” in balmy Siberia...
I actually like them both.
Guderian wrote the book on armor and Rommel wrote the book on infantry.
Rommel was better at playing to the press than Guderian. Rommel had photographers taking pictures of the Afrika Corp for consumption back in Germany. He once had someone use a torch to heat the armor on a tank and had the movie camera rolling as a tanker cracked an egg and immediately fried it on the tank. Hurricane Heinz would never have thought of that.
Guderian has the distinction of being sacked by Hitler than any other officer in the Wermacht. Usually for insubordination.
Hitler would order him to stand and fight in places unsuitable for defense. Guderian would pull back to a better position and lay in wait. Hitler would sack his butt. Just about any other General would have been executed. Fortunately Hitler realized Guderian was too valuable to waste and would give him another command. Guderian lived to help put together the West German army after the war.
Putin believes no such thing. Attacking a country is not a defensive action.
You may be right. US Failure to use our GIs to mop up Russia’s shattered “combat” units may prevent a total Russkie defeat. Time will tell.
However, the UK is providing Harpoon anti-ship missiles to the Ukraine. These will allow Ukraine to sink Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. When that fleet is sunk, Russia really won’t “need” Sevastopol or the Crimea any more.
Putin may then find he will have to negotiate the amount of REPARATIONS that Russia owes to Ukraine, and to the many countries that have helped Ukraine repel Putin’s foolish invasion.
Putin may also find that that the two oligarchs who are now being groomed to replace him, will act before he is “ready” to be pushed out.
And then — a bare-chested “summer” in balmy Siberia...
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