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Posted on 05/24/2022 7:06:08 AM PDT by Nifty
Opinion on which would be better against the DIMturd?
Pennsylvania Ping!
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Oz will do better out of the Philly region, but won’t do jack anywhere else.. he is a complete misbrand for this state outside of Philly particularly against Fetterman.
Both I think are going to do lousy, but if I had so say which would likely do better of 2 very bad choices? Honestly McCormick probably will play better statewide overall.
Look at the primary election results, county by county once you get away from Philly, McCormick generally wins. Whatever Oz gains out of Philly, be can’t remotely win state wide if he can’t get the T, and not just get it but get it big, and I just don’t see any way Oz is going to play in the T... Hell even Pittsburgh went McCormick over OZ by 8 points or so... So, Oz has Philly, but that’s it... And yes you have to do OKAY in Philly to win state wide in PA as a republican... but you need to perform well in the T, and I just don’t see OZ selling at all here...
Simple question will Oz and Barnette voters support McCormick? or will McCormick, Barnette voters support OZ... by that calculus, McCormick will likely bet more supporters from Oz and Barnette voters, than OZ will get from the McCormick/Barnette voters.
I don’t support either of them personally but my honest assessment of 2 lousy choices, McCormick would probably do better than OZ. I know Trump thinks he can sell OZ, but as this primary shows, it didn’t work.... Oz endorsement moved the polls a few points, that was it...
The folks who showed up to support Trump, particularly those disenfranchised voters he pulled in from the rural areas, are NEVER going to show up in big numbers for OZ, no matter what Trump says. Hell a segment of his own audience BOOED Oz at their joint campaign rally... Oz, just turns off a very significant segment of the base... he comes across as disingenuous and fake.. and after Specter, Toomey and Santorum, every loser who’s faced Casey over the last few decades, PA voters know a fraud when they see one.
The fact neither of these two sell is exactly why Barnette came out of nowhere, voters are desperate here for a true conservative, at least primary voters are, and the party never ever gives them an option.... And all it took was her to get some exposure and she took off like a rocket, in spite of 60 Million spent by Oz and McCormick.. and the entire establishment went into meltdown mode and told every lie they could think of to scare the peons back onto their plantation and sadly it worked on enough of them so that we get another lousy option this fall.
Anyway, here’s the official results, you can examine county by county and see what I am saying is true.. there are a few exceptions, but for the most part, you get out of Philly, OZ is non competitive. He’s not going to excite the base, and without the rural and small town voters engaged and excited, doing 10% or even 20% better out of Philly than a typical GOP candidate, isn’t going to get you a win. Whatever Gains Oz gets out of there, I suspect will be countered by far more losses across the rest of the state.
I’ve said it elsewhere only way Oz or McCormick win this fall is if the election is purely about repudiation of Biden and the democrats... in that case candidates don’t matter at all and the R wins regardless of who it is simply because they aren’t a D.
I am looking at PA as a bellweather, if the GOP holds this seat with either one of these turds running, then that means the race this fall is indeed a nationalize election and purely a repudiation of the Democrat brand, so if GOP wins this senate seat.. then we are going to be talking about GOP winning up and down the ballots in places NO ONE was even suspecting being in play.
If Dem’s take this seat its still likely to be a bad night for dems, but not nearly as bad as it could have been.
Either way, we find out in November.
I should clarify, by the “PHILLY” area, this is more the jersey bordering counties as a whole, not simply Philladelphia proper.
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