Posted on 05/25/2022 2:10:39 PM PDT by rktman
There is a lot of speculation about the Republican party’s chances of taking the momentum they have going into November and doing what was once thought unthinkable for this election cycle: flipping the Senate to red. The analyses I read — and I do read a lot of them — that break down how that just might happen all count Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) among the most vulnerable. My view from here in my native Arizona is that Kelly probably isn’t sweating too much. Last month, my friend and colleague Stephen Green gave his breakdown regarding the GOP’s Senate takeover chances, including some of my thoughts on the subject. There are some reasons that Kelly is probably safe that have mostly to do with the hot-mess nature of the Arizona Republican party, but perhaps the biggest problem is that Kelly is a celebrity candidate. It’s important for a Senate candidate to have good statewide name recognition. Well, Mark Kelly has nationwide name recognition. Because of that, he’s able to raise an ungodly amount of money from donors all over the United States. When crunch time in the campaign cycle rolls around, Kelly will have a spending advantage that none of his potential GOP opponents here will be able to match. He will be able to afford three television ads for every two radio ads the Republican can cough up the money for. Let’s look at how we got stuck with Kelly being elected to finish the late John McCain’s term in the first place. The GOP bench in Arizona isn’t what even an optimist would call good. Kelly’s opponent in 2020 was Martha McSally, the same candidate who had lost to Kyrsten Sinema in 2018.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
As anti-gun as he is, he should lose.
The gov of NJ almost lost things are much worse now than last nov. Kelly toast
IIRC they have massed a YUGE amount of bribery, uh I mean campaign, yeah, that’s it, campaign cash.
Dr. Oz is nationally known celebrity heart surgeon. Despite that, he is likely to be in a recount in his Republican primary election in Pennsylvania. Being a nationally known celebrity doesn’t mean Kelly will coast to reelection.
We'll see if they do that in the upcoming months.
Kelly stays, Fetterman takes Toomey’s seat, Johnson (WI) loses. GOP might take the Georgia seat, Dems hold Ne Hampshire seat. Not sure about North Carolina, I’ve read our chances there are somewhat shakey?
If the Repub candidate runs the usual boring milquetoast RINO lackluster campaign, Kelly has nothing to worry about.
I would tend to agree with the article.. Kelly’s pretty popular in that state.
His commercials are on YouTube constantly, and you can’t click through them. “Mark Kelly helped me with my healthcare costs...blah blah blah.” Well I checked out “Rosemary” from Flagstaff (or wherever she’s from) and, lo and behold, she’s the former head of the Demoncrat Party of Northern Arizona. IOW, his “fan” is just another party apparatchik and not an actual happy constituent. Even his ubiquitous commercial is a fraud, just like him!
Notice how only McMaster is mentioned? The AG? McMaster is the one that frightens them. He’s more new ideas. Gotta admit the Az. GOP is pretty stupid. Wikipedia has it as a tossup so who’s smarter or can we win it in spite of ourselves?
Kelly is at 44% or so in the polls at Real Clear Politics. That certainly makes him vulnerable.
If being an astronaut is so important John Glenn would have made it to the WH.
We have been known to snatch victory away on a regular basis. Or be cheated out of one.
The Pubbies aren't going to get the same kind of help in North Carolina that they got in 2020 from Cal Cunningham.
There’s one running in the Reno NV area with some assclown telling us that without branDUHn she may not be in her house and who much better her life is since the (s)elections. Really? No, REALLY?
ONLY reason Dr Oz is in a recount situation is because of spoiler role by Barnette. If she was not in the race, Oz wins without needing recount. But many low IQ voters keep voting for un-electable candidates in primaries. Barnette lost her last congressional race by whopping 17% points. Republican primary voters need to avoid voting for candidates such as these, because it results in election of a democrat who is 100% opposed to MAGA agenda.
Roy Moore
Todd Akin
Richard Mourdock
Christine O’Donnell
Ken Buck
Alan West
Kathy Barnette
I also live in Arizona and I agree with Stephen Kruiser.
Phoenix, Tucson & Falgstaff are solid votes for Kelly. At least 3 of the Reservations will be solid Democrat.
That alone will probably carry Kelly. Even without those Democrat strongholds, Kelly will probably beat any of that bunch the Republicrats put up.
Mark Brnovich is probably the only name recognized by non political junkies and I suspect his negatives are well over 50%.
Jim Lamon, Blake Masters, Michael “Mick” McGuire and Justin Olson are unknown. In fact, I doubt I could find ten people at the Walmart in Benson, a very conservative little town that could tell you who Lamon, Masters, McGuire & Olsen are.
Then there is the fact that there is a “conservative” radio talk jock in Tucson that seems to be trying to push one candidate while denigrating the others.
Naa. Brnovich will be the candidate and Kelly will beat him by 10 or more points.
Well when you got Trump and orca wimpfree on your side.........
I think you may be right
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