Have heard this repeatedly since 1979. The clerical regime ‘is collapsing’ over and over. The weak and ill Shah was convinced by stupid hangers on the clerical regime ‘was going to co;;apse’ and the ‘Shah would be welcomed back’. So Reza II stumbled around, delayed leaving Egypt and gave the revolutionaries a golden rationale to implement the well thought out program of repression. Repression without limit remains the government’s hold card and as long as their are determined and ruthless fanatics, or just power worshipers, at the top the regime will remain. Only a really big unsucessful war could provide the basis for a regime collapse and it would have to feature major internal schisms in the leadership. As long as their are a lot of RG personnel and an absolute determination to hold on to power no matter what the cost the clerical regime is going nowhere. The people who rule Iran really like to kill people who oppose them. They believe, really believe, they are G-d’s anointed and are absolutely incapable of error. This unbending attitude helped them gain power, they really enjoyed killing the Shah’s partisans when they got power, and they really like killing ‘traitors’ who oppose them today.
Apple TV has a great show out called Tehran. It’s about an Israeli spy in Iran. Excellent!