Posted on 06/28/2022 4:54:59 AM PDT by FarCenter
NATO meets in Madrid on June 28. As the West’s peace camp increases its din, it’s a good moment to consider the consequences of a Ukrainian defeat. They would be catastrophic.
Any peace that secures Russian assent will be tantamount to Russian victory. Russian victory will divide and in time destroy the Atlantic Alliance, severely weakening the United States’ long-term position in Eurasia.
Putin may not have entered this war with grandiose ambitions vis-a-vis NATO. But his war has become his defining policy action. The West should understand that Russian victory would fundamentally transform the Eurasian order.
(Excerpt) Read more at asiatimes.com ...
But it also describes the consequences of Russia losing for Russia.
There is no scenario under which both Ukraine and Russia can win.
I think that if the article is correct, then Ukraine is Serbia and the current conflict is the start of a new world war.
If Russia loses, something will fill the void, and most likely that will be Turkey. And you ain’t gonna like it.
“Any peace that secures Russian assent will be tantamount to Russian victory. Russian victory will divide and in time destroy the Atlantic Alliance, severely weakening the United States’ long-term position in Eurasia.”
If Europe doesn’t want to freeze this winter, I expect the price to be that NATO dissolves and the US is forced to pull out.
“If Russia loses, something will fill the void, and most likely that will be Turkey. And you ain’t gonna like it.”
It’s pretty clear that the purpose of this war in Ukraine was to bring Russia under the control of the Neocons (which is the case now for practically all of Europe).
The problem was that Russia saw it coming and prepared for it.
Another geriatric Neocon trying to start a world war.
FarCenter
Since Feb 22, 2022
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FarCenter hasn’t created an about page.
This guy sounds like a warmongering NOOB!
The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis
The war in Ukraine is a multi-dimensional disaster, which is likely to get much worse in the foreseeable future.
by John J. Mearsheimer / June 23
[This speech was given at the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence on Thursday, June 16.]
[This transcribed speech will be considered one of the most important treatises on the Russo-Ukraine war in coming years and decades. Every statement will be studied and debated. I urge folks on all sides to read it in its entirety. I’m only posting the concluding paragraphs here due to space and brevity considerations.]
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/causes-and-consequences-ukraine-crisis-203182
Conclusion:
Simply put, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is a colossal disaster, which as I noted at the start of my talk, will lead people all around the world to search for its causes. Those who believe in facts and logic will quickly discover that the United States and its allies are mainly responsible for this train wreck. The April 2008 decision to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO was destined to lead to conflict with Russia.
The Bush administration was the principal architect of that fateful choice, but the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations have doubled down on that policy at every turn and America’s allies have dutifully followed Washington’s lead. Even though Russian leaders made it perfectly clear that bringing Ukraine into NATO would be crossing “the brightest of red lines,” the United States refused to accommodate Russia’s deepest security concerns and instead moved relentlessly to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s border.
The tragic truth is that if the West had not pursued NATO expansion into Ukraine, it is unlikely there would be a war in Ukraine today and Crimea would still be part of Ukraine. In essence, Washington played the central role in leading Ukraine down the path to destruction. History will judge the United States and its allies harshly for their remarkably foolish policy on Ukraine. Thank you.
/ / /
John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago. His many books include The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities and The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.
The article is silly, claiming that Ukraine has some kind of ‘strategic depth’ when virtually all of their best troops, the ones trained by NATO over the past 8 years, have been or soon will be neutralized by Russia. Ukraine still has a lot of people, since they started with a Ukrainian-speaking population of 30 million or so, but most of them hadn’t picked up a gun until a month or two ago.
Continuing the war only leads to the same result, but with more unnecessary deaths.
Good.
Try to imagine what George Washington and James Madison would have wished for "the United States’ long-term position in Eurasia", and act accordingly.
Not enough reason to explain why we’re in this war.
This assumes Russia hasn’t already won.
I wouldn’t make that assumption.
“Good.”
Hard to argue with that, considering what the West has morphed into. Someone noted (somewhere, doubt I can find it now) that no other than Fidel Castro said that the next time Fascism arises it will be under the cover of ‘democracy’.
Russia will win.
And there is nothing Dementia Joe can do about it, including some shotgun NATO membership for Ukraine.
It was established to give the U.S. a mechanism for pacifying Western Europe; not to protect it from the Soviet Union.
I tend to agree, but erdogon has been pretty reasonable thus far
Of course, Russia still somewhat keeps Turkey’s ambitions in check.
The billionaire globalist psychopaths and the Uniparty criminal complex can’t let Russia win.
Maybe so. And NATO was futile in dealing with the Serbian conflict. Given Putin’s history and motives, and given EU’s obvious ambivalence, I think the only possible outcome is a negotiated settlement that gives Russia the essentials of what it wants.
Settling into this war of attrition, fueled by a modicum of western military support, just enough to keep it going, is of no benefit to anyone but eventually Russia; and Joe Biden, who gets to try to present himself as a decisive wartime president in the elections.
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