Posted on 07/10/2022 8:56:07 PM PDT by delta7
Wishful thinking from Putin’s meat grinder.
Very good article. He spells out the current situation well, but I do not agree with his conclusions that the U.S. or the rest of NATO will continue the sanction campaign regardless of the devastating effects it is having on the West.
From my perspective it appears the will to continue this is already starting to crumble and this is likely to pick up speed as the suffering escalates.
The president of the Austrian Chamber of Commerce has already openly spoke out on the need to end sanctions. Macron and Scholz (according to a Ukrainian telegram source) have already devised a Minsk 3 plan that they are trying to push on Zelensky. Germany is blocking the EU 9 billion euro financing plan and the one billion euro IMF loan and not only has Germany been slow walking and delaying shipping to Ukraine the weapons they had previously pledged; but the Defense Minister has denied the previously promised 200 fuchs armoured personnel carriers saying that Germany needed to keep their weapons for their own defense.
The Italian government is in a crisis and may fall and the two main groups there are at odds about continuing to supply Ukraine. And some of the Eastern EU members have been cold to the sanction plan all along because it creates devastating harm for them. Etc., etc., etc.,
People may not recognize it yet; but this whole program is in the process of imploding.
"Objection, Your Honor! Counsel presenting facts not in evidence!"
Regards,
Good morning Boris! Good morning Natasha! How’s the weather in dear old Moskva this morning?
Amazing how quickly warfare technology changes. Just out an interesting article about the latest efforts from that “gas station masquerading as a country”...:-)
I wonder if there was ever anything John McCain was right about...:-)
https://www.space.com/russia-anti-satellite-laser-facility-satellite-photos
Satellites spot construction of Russian anti-satellite laser facility: report
By Brett Tingley published 3 days ago
Anti-satellite technologies are on the rise as space becomes an increasingly vital domain for military activities.
Recent Google Earth images reveal construction at what appears to be a sophisticated laser system at a Russian space facility designed to blind adversary satellites.
The construction is taking place at the Russian Ministry of Defense’s Krona space facility near Zelenchukskaya in Russia’s far southwest, home of the massive RATAN-600 radio telescope. The existence of this new complex was brought to light in an in-depth open source investigation published by The Space Review that analyzed public satellite imagery, solicitation documents from Russian industrial contractors and Russian financial documents.
All of these sources lay out the construction of a project named Kalina, described in the financial documentation obtained by The Space Review as a laser system designed for “electro-optical warfare” that can permanently blind adversarial satellites by shining laser pulses so bright they can damage optical sensors. (This is distinctly different from other lasers known as “dazzlers,” which are aimed at only temporarily blinding optics systems.)
Russian patent and procurement documents reveal that the Kalina laser facility features a separate tracking system with adaptive optics to help it better mitigate atmospheric disturbance. Along with this system, the laser itself features a transmit-receive system to measure laser light reflected back at it from its target in order to better aim directly at the optical systems on its target object.
This “shadow war in space,” as The Washington Post deemed it, is already playing out. Elon Musk wrote in May 2022 that Russia has been “ramping up their efforts” to jam and disrupt signals from SpaceX’s Starlink internet satellites. SpaceX recently sent many Starlink terminals to Ukraine to re-establish communication networks and provide emergency internet services in the nation, which Russia invaded in February.
It’s quite possible that ground-based lasers like Russia’s new Kalina system could provide exactly the type of “soft kill” methods described by Chinese researchers — techniques that, unlike “hard kill” methods, don’t create risks for everyone else operating in space.
There is no point for Russia to sign up for Minsk 3 because the first two are still haunting her.
As was the case with the previous agreements, Ukraine is going to violate them since day one, but the media is going to claim that Russia is doing it.
There is no point in any deals in such environment.
Regarding weaponized energy it takes a special kind of stupid to whine about.
Numerous top European leaders declared a total economic war on Russia, stating that they are going to stop the gas import as quick as possible.
Once the flow stopped, according to the Russian statement due to valuable equipment withheld due to sanctions and the facts on the ground confirm it, they scream ‘energy weapon’, instead of assuming responsibility for own actions.
Bottom line is that the European claims of alternative sources are mostly of symbolic nature. The US and Australia a decreasing gas exports due to domestic shortages, and Arabs do not want to invest trillions into idiots whose goal is to switch to renewables in ten years.
Russia at the same time is rather effective in diverting the European sales and it makes Euros frustrated as hell, except they don’t have any viable options.
Stop posting this blog in the News/Activism Forum.
“Russia at the same time is rather effective in diverting the European sales and it makes Euros frustrated as hell, except they don’t have any viable options.”
The Minsk 3 plan, of course, is never going to be agreed to by Russia. That ship sailed months ago once Russia understood that this wasn’t about Ukraine; but a carefully designed NATO (read: U.S.) plan to defeat Russia. But, the fact that Macron and Scholz have been trying so desperately to make it happen is a clear indication of just how badly they want the sanctions to end and how eager they are to reconnect with their energy supplier...:-)
The “biggest sanctions program in history” has failed and is now fizzling out.
Are you Russian?
The “intelligence community” probably said them that the exodus of Pepsi and IKEA is going to produce a revolution and they are going to get control over the energy assets for free. Once it failed to work they had no plan B.
If I were Russia I wouldn’t let them out of their own trap that quick. Euroidiots need to learn who is the boss the hard way to prevent future mischief.
Are you Russian?
You can’t post anything about Russia Ukraine if you look like you are taking a side. Flame wars are raging on every thread about the conflict. It’s the Putin Stooges versus the Ukraine Resistance. I only come here to see the insults.
Germany blocks EU aid to Ukraine: gas tension and sanctions
Federico Fubini
The standoff prompted Zelensky to remove the Ukrainian ambassador to Berlin. Meanwhile, Germany seems willing to violate some sanctions.
For more than a month, Germany has been blocking the € 9 billion aid package that should represent the main form of EU support for Ukraine . The stalemate, confirmed by various protagonists both in Kiev and in Brussels, could be one of the reasons that prompted Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday to suddenly and rather brutally remove the Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin Andryi Melnyk .
However, there is a further reason behind the Ukrainian president’s nervousness of these hours: the suspicion that the Berlin government is preparing to violate some sanctions against Moscow in order to recover Russian gas supplies through the Nord Stream pipelines.
Both issues have been troubling the Ukrainian government and relations with Brussels for days, with no solution yet in sight. German opposition to the aid package seems unrelated to the gas crisis , so it probably does not reflect an attempt by Berlin to flatter Moscow just as the Kremlin maneuvers to cut off energy supplies to Europe. Yet Berlin’s obstacles to lending to Ukraine remain formidable.
The idea of the 9 billion aid, born in the spring by the Commission, was confirmed by all the leaders of the European Union at the end of May. The project provides for loans in Kiev repayable after 25 years and effectively without interest , thanks to funds that the Commission itself would collect by issuing debt guaranteed by European states on the market. But Germany, the largest and most solid of the guarantors of that form of Eurobond, is opposed: after having given the assent to the top of the leaders, now it is not there .
Berlin’s finance minister, the liberal Christian Lindner, does not like the fact that Brussels has recourse to common European debt in the Ukrainian crisis after having done so during the pandemic. For now, the German manager has given his approval only to a first tranche of one billion, the proceeds of which should be paid to Kiev by July. Meanwhile, time passes, Kiev claims that it needs aid of $ 5 billion a month and the hypothesis is that Ukraine will default on a 900 million euro foreign debt maturity in September.
More intricate, if possible, is the question of gas destined for Germany. The Russian monopoly Gazprom has announced a first cut in supplies on Nord Stream by 60%, then a second up to 90% officially between 11 and 21 July , offering a technical reason only in appearance: the gas pipeline in the Russian part works at reduced pace because a Siemens turbine is missing, already sent for repair in Germany and never returned because it is subject to sanctions.
Therefore, according to Moscow, Germany is running out of gas because it applies European measures against Russia. After all , the blockade of technological and industrial spare parts is considered the most effective weapon in Europe’s hand to weaken Russia and its Di lei regime. Meanwhile Siemens had sent Gazprom’s turbine to be repaired in Canada, which in effect was holding it back in application of the sanctions.
Two days ago came the turning point that sent Zelensky into a rage: the Minister of Economy Robert Habeck, leader of the Greens, requested and obtained the return of the turbine from Canada to Germany, giving clear signs of wanting to send it back to Russia. “If there is a legal problem for Canada, I ask that the turbine be shipped not to Russia but to us. We are forced to ask with a heavy heart - said Habeck -. We need the capabilities of Nord Stream to fill the gas storages ».
And if this is not setting the stage for a sanction violation, with Berlin attempting to bow to Moscow’s blackmail on energy, then it closely resembles us .
The Jerusalem Post: Ukraine wants Iron Dome sale from Israel, blasts anti-tank missile refusal.
______________________
🇮🇱🇺🇦Reznikov said that the Iron Dome missile defense system is only good against “rockets from the garage.”
The complex was “rejected” by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine during an interview with Forbes.
“It was created against slow missiles flying at low altitudes, made, in fact, in garages,” he told reporters.
Actually, no one was going to give away or even sell the “Iron Dome” to Kyiv.
This was previously announced to the Ambassador of Ukraine to Israel Yevgeny Korneichuk.
By the way, in response, he demanded (yes, he demanded) from Israel “to leave the comfort zone and finally choose a side.”
Israel knows if they send their weapons to Ukraine, they might as well just hand them over to Russia and Iran, so they can be back-engineered to allow countermeasures, making them to become next to useless in the battlefield.
Israel also has no love of the Neocons, as they also demand ‘land for peace’ there in a way that will leave Israel defenseless.
So, given both of the above, Israel is not going to let go of their expensively developed weapons.
The size of the Russian economy is a fact that is meaningless - they can win by not playing. Meaning if the sanctions are irrelevant because the average Russian can still eat, drive, and watch TV, the Russians win. Keeping in mind Russia still gets plenty of technology/chemicals via Chinese imports in return for oil and gas.
Think about this - if you have a farm and the technology to make biodiesel and do metal working on hand, so you can feed your family, heat the house, and drive your tractor, do you really care that Amazon won’t deliver your box of French wine and Swiss chocolate? Nope.
A lot of folks on FR need to learn about the value of negotiating position - Pres Trump knew a LOT about it and kept us safe because he did.
My personal assessment - based upon 23 years of repeated lengthy visits to Ukraine and Russia, numerous intimate contacts with Russians, and continuing communications with Russians in Russia - is that the sanctions are working.
Big-city Russians are not to be compared with starving-but-compliant North Koreans. The unrest among the civilian population is growing.
Regards,
one option to continue the sanction regime and escalate further would be to keep pushing russia until it provokes a response that provides the excuse for going to fully open direct war (not that we aren’t now unofficially in a limited way, and apparently bragging about it)
done right, it could solve the pesky election problem in november too. I suspect that is a central factor in timing, actually.
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