Vance is in the news again for past comments that make him look like he's criticizing women for leaving abusive relationships. His fundraising is pathetic. And he's running, by many accounts, a bad campaign. This was never going to be a cake-walk for any candidate. Going with a candidate who has never run for office before was a risky proposition to begin with. Vance may well win - Ryan could make a major mistake himself - but he's got to find his 'A' game somewhere soon and stick with it.
“His fundraising is pathetic.”
You’re certainly right about that. Plus, Democrats are going all-in to try to buy this seat for Ryan.
I don’t trust the national or state GOP to help Vance much, and some panicky last-minute Trump rally on his behalf would be a bad sign (because it shouldn’t be necessary), but for some reason I do, perhaps naively, trust the voters of Ohio to do the right thing here and not wind up with 2 liberal Democrats representing them in the Senate.
Furthermore, at least based on what we saw in 2020 Democrat vote fraud isn’t likely to be nearly as easy to accomplish here as it was and will be in other critical states like PA and GA (and AZ and WI and NV and....). Maybe this is one state where the Rats won’t be able to cheat the outcome of a close race.
Vance is overweight. That will affect his stamina in doing face-to-face voter events. However, 538 predicts good odds for a victory:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
Even Oz isn’t far off. And 538 is a Dem outfit.