Russian oil/gas exports to the huge Asian markets are only going to keep rising.
In a few years time, Europe will make up only a small percentage of total Russian oil/gas exports.
The demographics are just not in favor of Europe. Their population is too small and its not growing.
Gas is a very different story.. Europe (including Turkey) accounted for about 85% of Russia’ natural gas exports last year. Delivering that product to market depends overwhelmingly on existing pipelines. Only a fraction can physically be diverted to terminal facilities that could liquify it for export. New pipelines to transport that existing production to Indian or Chinese markets would need to be constructed across several time zones, requiring a lot of capital investment and many years.
Look at the longest natural gas pipelines in the world, with the longest in China, built by the Chinese with a length of a massive 5,410 miles. You think the Chinese are going to have a problem building gas pipelines from Russia to China?
West-East Pipeline. Length: 5,410 miles. Start: Xinjiang, China. ...
GASUN Pipeline (planned) Length: 3,100 miles. ...
Yamal-Europe Pipeline. Length: 2,608 miles. ...
Trans-Saharan Pipeline (planned) Length: 2,565 miles. ...
TransCanada Pipeline. Length: 2,005 miles. ...
Yes, eventually more pipelines to China will be built, and so will will more production capacity elsewhere in the world, to compete with Russian production.
Russia is on track to become heavily dependent on the Chinese market, while China is still diversified among several suppliers. China will drive favorable terms from their new satrap.
In the mean time however, Russia is likely going to go through some wrenching shortfalls, as well as some price spike windfalls.
Big price increases initially, but after that hump comes a few years of serious drought. Meanwhile, the other sectors of their economy, except perhaps agriculture and mining, will be imploding badly, and their brain drain will be severe.
They will likely be kept in that tar baby of the Ukraine War until their Military stocks are depleted to the point that it would take them years of heavy re-armament to threaten Europe again - years in which their budget will be suffering from the slow transition to new oil and gas customers, straining their capability to increase Defense budgets.
As oil prices go boom and bust, as they usually do, the next bust (likely the currently developing recession in major economies) is going to seriously hurt Russian revenues. Then the knives should be out in earnest, in domestic Russian politics.