Posted on 07/29/2022 2:48:45 PM PDT by Az Joe
JULY 29, 2022
The INITIAL GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the THIRD quarter of 2022 is 2.1 percent on July 29.
APRIL 29, 2022
The INITIAL GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the SECOND quarter of 2022 is 1.9 percent on April 29
Wait. Are they now saying there was not retraction but instead there was growth?
Bullshit.
“The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 1.9 percent on April 29.”
How’d that work out for ya?
They had this quarter up 2% or something like that as well at the start of Q2
They didn’t finally admit it would be negative until mid July.
It’s a fraud. Q3 will be negative as well and they know it
Any more videos of Mad Money idiot Jim Cramer stating we have hit "Peak Inflation" out there?
UNemployment numbers/%’s are total fiction, also.
Ask yourself a simple question: Do I need someone else to tell me if there’s a recession?
I’m betting the decline escalates.
Experts.
We are entering a depression and will be fully in one by the end of the year.
I am a reference for a couple of people and I am just not getting calls to check. They are actively job hunting and they say they are getting little to no response to their applications.
They are the kind of employees that should be jumped at.
Another major difference between GDPNow and the official GDP is the organizations that produce them. The Atlanta Fed runs GDPNow. The Bureau of Economic Analysis within the Commerce Department calculates and publishes the official GDP. They use different methods to calculate GDP, thus the GDP will be different.
Understanding the real meaning of economic reports gives perspective as to the real meaning of figures, their utility and what they predict or not predict. The media will not tell you. They are economic morons that are indoctrinated to write at a sixth grade level. You have to teach yourself and tear apart models to know what they really mean.
By the way, there are plenty of other ways to know we are in a recession beyond GDP figures. You probably have known for sometime we are in a recession just by going about life. That is as valid, if not better than economic reports. Or you may have noticed the treasury yield curve has been inverted. Anytime there is a prolonged inversion of the yield curve there as always been a recession. That’s not an economic report. That’s just market data.
Read later.
Its a forecast. Very likely to be wrong as its based on a model.
The other series of posts is the progress of the SECOND Quarter GDP estimates, for which the data is still not all in, so its a moving number, as you see.
The US unemployment rate is almost useless as it depends mainly on its denominator, the labor force. And that labor force number is entirely artificial, based on a mass of assumptions.
The best, consistent measure is the St. Louis Feds EMRATIO, in which the denominator is the US adult population, a hard number. And that shows no improvement in employment since Feb 2022.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO
Ahh, thanks for clearing that up for me and maybe others.
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