Russia faces ‘economic oblivion’ despite claims of short-term resilience, economists say

CNBC ^ | 02-AUG-2022 | Elliot Smith

[SpeedyInTexas]

Russia is facing “economic oblivion” in the long term because of international sanctions and the flight of businesses, several economists have said.

...

However, many economists see long-lasting costs to the Russian economy from the exit of foreign firms – which will hit production capacity and capital and result in a “brain drain” – along with the loss of its long-term oil and gas markets and diminished access to critical imports of technology and inputs.

[SpeedyInTexas]

"Eurasia Group projects a sustained, long-term decline in economic activity to eventually result in a 30%-50% contraction in Russian GDP from its prewar level."

“As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base.”

"They also noted that Russia’s domestic financial markets were the worst performers in the world so far this year despite the strict capital controls, with investors pricing in “sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting,” along with Russia’s effective ostracization from international financial markets."

[Sacajaweau]

Same people who say climate change is biggest problem in the world?

[Flick Lives]

Are these any of the same economists who said inflation was transitory or we’re not in a recession?

[devere]

Fans of the mass-murderer Putin will say that it is all part of a clever plan by their hero.

[PGR88]

Same economists who said inflation was temporary.

[Iron Munro]

Are these the same economists who told us that sanctions against Russia would hurt them?

And that the Biden Stag-Flation was transitory?

And that another trillion dollars in government spending will end the Biden Stag-Flation?

And that the Biden Recession is not really a recession?

[PGR88]

Remember, Hunter’s laptop was merely “Russian disinformation.”

51 CIA experts told us so.

[wiseprince]

which type of Economist are these? The Recession redefiners? The, “you can print as much as you want kind”, the “unexpectedly high unemployment” kind or the “Unexpectedly low unemployment” kind or the, “Inflation is transitory” kind? Not enough details in the headline.

[poinq]

Russia is being paid by China and India and Korea for oil. They are fine. Just a bit of dislocation. But now Russians will work in sectors that provide local growth not handbags.

[backwoods-engineer]

Translation: “Dammit! Our plan to ruin Russia has BACKFIRED!”

[HollyB]

If this isn’t the most ridiculous thing. Do they not see BRIC is expanding?

[LS]

These are the Paul Krugmanites.

Russia is just fine. It’s the Euros that are facing economic oblivion.

[marktwain]

The Soviet Union died, in large part, because the Russians could not manage an internal economy. It was compared to the rest of the the world, and fared quite badly.

As Russia looks to create another iron curtain, it does not look to be better prepared than the Soviet Union was.

[cuban leaf]

Define “expert”.

[Thunder90]

Key takeaways... 1. Russia is Communist and not to be trusted. 2. Don’t underestimate Russia and her capabilities, especially in the light of their alliances and even by themselves.

[NorseViking]

What lost companies represented 40% of GDP? Can they be more specific? Most of the gone companies are import companies which aren’t producing anything. There is a of extra economic activity to replace them with jobs and added value produced in Russia. Others who left had their facilities bought by the Chinese and locals for pennies on the dollar. They are still working and the money remain in Russia.

[Thunder90]

BRICS is in a much better position now than it was during Soviet 1.0 times. That will offset Russia’s loss of trade with the wesr. Also Russia/USSR2.0 isn’t occupying a bunch of eastern European countries that hate it. Third, we have Hunter Biden and other corrupt politicians and officials who will do business with Russia for the right price.

[bigbob]

Anyone capable of searching “Russia oil profits” would know this is completely false. Russia earned record profits of $100B in the first 100 day of the Ukraine war and the EU cutswon’t even begin til next Febr., right in the middle of the hesting season and the don’t have any good alternatives. Why don’t you stop posting propaganda?

[gibsonguy]

Thanks for the info Ukraine Bob.

[If You Want It Fixed - Fix It]

Is this author Chemical Ali?