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To: Zhang Fei

The industrial shift for India from what has been its most very long term military equipment supplier for decades - back into the Soviet era, which is Russia, cannot be done quickly without imposing cost and supply constraints that are not in the best interest of the immediate military strength requirments of India.

The U.S. position vis-a-vis Taiwan is not likely to become, for India, an “ally” issue with the U.S., until and unless a Chinese invasion happens. Until then, India will not see the opening of a “second front” with China in its interest. One front with China, and dealing with that one, diplomatically and militarily is all India sees in its immediate concern. Any change will come by way of future events, but not at the moment just to improve the stated common theme of the Quad group for the the long run.

However, it might being acting more “neutral” with respect to Russia-Uraine and the west, than is in its longest term interest, if the Quad is truly in its long term interest. It could well maintain its military equipment supply lines with Russia, without KowTowing to Russia as much as it is diplomatically at this point.

Howver again, India’s ongoing poisition vis-a-vis Russia will likely make the two either no less closer, or even closer, in different ways, given either the best or the worts outcomes for Russia in Ukraine. Russia will continue to be India’s main military supply partner, likely no matter what, and that self-serving relationship will continue to color India’s other relationships with Russia for the forseeable future.

At some point, depending on events, the Quad may be reduced to a Tripod.


21 posted on 08/17/2022 10:30:24 AM PDT by Wuli
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To: Wuli
Russia will continue to be India’s main military supply partner, likely no matter what, and that self-serving relationship will continue to color India’s other relationships with Russia for the forseeable future.

On the contrary the current Indian Govt just passed laws that 80% of all defence supplies must be made in India. Even US and European companies having plants in India qualify. By next year. the only imports allowed will be major systems and tech that cannot be made here, like aircraft and ship engines.

FYI, all new proposed orders for Russian aircraft have been scrapped because there is a severe shortage of spares. After already placed orders are filled, only unique systems like the S-400 / S-500 will be purchased. And nuke subs and Tu-223 White Swan bombers leased. The need for spares for existing equipment, unfortunately will keep India dependent on the Russians for 2 decades more though.

At some point, depending on events, the Quad may be reduced to a Tripod.

India needs the Quad . The Quads focus is only China. Russia-Ukraine should not be mixed up in the Quad. Biden doing so greatly pleased the Chinese.

India and Japan are most at threat from China. There are undeclared hostilities in the Himalayas between China and India. No way India leaves the Quad unless the focus shifts from China

36 posted on 08/18/2022 2:44:50 AM PDT by IndianChief
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