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To: BeauBo

Russia has been burning through about that much per month during this war.
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So, Russia has no current accounts? No trade at all with the entire globe? No resources, manufacturing, domestic markets or internal value-added profits?

Reserves are just that. In reserve.

And the value of gold is being suppressed by the usual suspects, but we all know the pressure is building.

Russia is the 2nd largest gold producer on the planet. The Atlantic Alliance is dawdling (because they know more sanctions will yield the same results) over making sanctions on Russian gold more draconian, but it is symbolic, as the trade simply shifts to Asia.


38 posted on 08/21/2022 1:28:23 PM PDT by reformedliberal (Make yourself less available.)
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To: reformedliberal

“So, Russia has no current accounts?”

They have a current account (trade) surplus, mainly because the price of their oil and gas exports rose, while their imports dropped a lot due to sanctions.

Since they are now demanding payment in Rubles, they are not accumulating foreign currency, but still having to spend it for a lot of the imports that they still can get. They are burning through their remaining reserves of foreign currency, after which imports will likely decline somewhat further. They will still be able to barter with oil for some.

Gas export volumes continue to drop, with no where else that gas can go.

Oil prices are down 25% from their wartime high. Secondary sanctions on other customers (India and China) are being planned for December. If oil prices drop to their pre-COVID norms (around $60), it would be a dire financial situation for Russia.

Yes they produce gold and diamonds, but that is just a fraction of the revenue that oil produces.

Russia is more dependent on oil and gas (1/2 their GDP, about 1/4 each for gas and oil) than Saudi Arabia (1/3 of GDP). The EU bought 85% of their gas exports. Most of that is now going away quickly, for good, and with no other way to any other market.

When the oil price gets kicked out from under them, they will be left swinging.


39 posted on 08/21/2022 3:34:57 PM PDT by BeauBo ( )
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