Posted on 08/24/2022 1:36:00 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
LONDON (Reuters) - Cold winters helped Moscow defeat Napoleon and Hitler. President Vladimir Putin is now betting that sky-rocketing energy prices and possible shortages this winter will persuade Europe to strong arm Ukraine into a truce -- on Russia's terms.
That, say two Russian sources familiar with Kremlin thinking, is the only path to peace that Moscow sees, given Kyiv says it will not negotiate until Russia leaves all of Ukraine.
"We have time, we can wait," said one source close to the Russian authorities, who declined to be named because they are not authorised to speak to the media.
"It's going to be a difficult winter for Europeans. We could see protests, unrest. Some European leaders might think twice about continuing to support Ukraine and think it's time for a deal."
A second source close to the Kremlin said Moscow thought it could already detect faltering European unity and expected that process to accelerate amid winter hardship.
"It will be really tough if it (the war) drags into the autumn and winter. So there's hope they (the Ukrainians) will ask for peace," said the source.
Ukraine's battlefield performance between now and the winter could determine the direction of the war, said Neil Melvin, a London-based analyst at the RUSI think tank.
"Ukraine needs to convince Western supporters than it can win (in battle) and have momentum. If they can show, during this period, that they can push the Russians back and keep up that momentum, it will be a win."
But the longer the war dragged on the greater the risks of Western divisions over Ukraine become as higher fuel, gas, electricity and food prices bite.
"All the economic indicators are turning negative now. It will be harder to motivate people shivering in their apartments.”
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
And the Germans laughed at Trump when he told them of the danger of being dependent on Russian gas.
Stolen elections in the U.S. has consequences even in Europe.
Don’t bet against him. European leaders are under intense domestic pressure to reduce energy and food costs. Entire economies are at risk.
Most likely possibility: Zelensky caves under pressure from Europe to end the war.
Lack of foresight by the West?
Or events are going according to plan?
The Ukraine is going to beat him to it. Their parliament has already proposed interdicting gas flow over Ukrainian territory until Germany joins to war.
It’s in Europes interest to have Ukraine producing oil and gas and steel and grain to compete against Russia.
Anyone is Europe pressuring Ukraine to give up territory is either corrupt or too stupid to be alive.
“Anyone is Europe pressuring Ukraine to give up territory is either corrupt or too stupid to be alive.”
This is the type of thoughtless shrieking that comes from within a dying empire. Sensible people have stopped listening.
Until the war is over, Ukraine has become a major liability and a drain on Europe’s resources. Besides the costs of weapons and economic aid to Ukraine, over 5 million refugees have flooded the continent.
NATO has fractured with countries like Turkey and Hungary ignoring the sanctions. Other countries are striking deals separately with Russia. Most of Europe is now in a recession and inflation is rampant.
So what is the end game in Ukraine for Europe? Currently, Europe is slow-walking aid to Ukraine, one of the most corrupt countries in the world.
Oh man, Trump would be taking such MASSIVE advantage of this chaos to help our nation, it just makes me cry.
I agee. What this senseless poster forgets is that Russia now controls most of the areas of The Ukraine that are absolutely necessary to The Ukraine economy.
I highly doubt that Russia will move toward Odessa, although they’d like to. What they might do is take the rest of the east of the Dnieper and call it done.
What they’ve said is that longer range weapons furnished to Ukraine will only result in more territory being taken.
This is a US backed proxy war that is industrial in nature and it is losing. The US manufacturing base is degraded and a sliver of what it once was. What we are capable of producing now in large quantities consists mainly of fiat, threats, excuses, and imbeciles.
More Billions to Ukraine as America Falls Apart
I think we’ll see Europe tough it out for one winter at least. We know in the spring the Russians will have to fight General Mud again and they didn’t fare so well the last time.
If Ukraine pushes Russia out, those 5 million refugees go home. If they fail to, those refugees become a permanent problem for Europe.
The economic costs of the war are nothing compared to hiow much Europe will have to pay when Russia is be able to jack up prices on those commodities because they kept Urkaine’s resources.
Doesn’t look like there is much fracturing. Turkey has been providing Bayraker drones for free to Ukraine. Turkey refuesed to provide drones to Russia.
Joe Biden is slow walking aid to Ukraine. Which is no surprise since Hunter accepted bribes from the Moscow Mayor’s wife and from the Russian leaning oligarch who owned Burisma.
Biden is walking a fine line. He doesn’t want to be seen as not leading the west. Boris temporarily took that title from him over Ukraine. But Biden is corrupt and owes Russia. Both Congress and the Department of Defense is solidly behind Ukraine, so Biden can only slow walk so much.
Biden’s current ploy is to slow walk is to purchase everything new for Ukraine, instead of shipping supplies from the US arsenal and backfilling with new purchases.
“It will be really tough if it (the war) drags into the autumn and winter.” (says the Russian insider in the article).
Bottom line: If European leaders don’t buckle this Winter, Russia is well and truly screwed. FUBAR.
Interesting. Hadn’t heard that news. It would confirm the moral equivalence of Russia and Ukraine if it happens.
If Europe holds out, Crimea can be retaken, and all that offshore oil and gas will be injected into the European pipelines for decades to come, without Russian control.
Otherwise, they will be repeating this conflict later, closer and closer to home.
Finish the job.
Send more Artillery.
Git’er done.
“Anyone is Europe pressuring Ukraine to give up territory is either corrupt or too stupid to be alive.”
That’s a European problem, in no way connected to US interests. US interests are limited to the war ending, on any terms, and the resumption of commodity commerce with Russia.
We have no other interests there, as much as Democrats and neocons try they cannot come up with a rational argument otherwise.
But they fervently believe some silly bullsh!t about dominoes and the mortal threat Russia poses to the US.
Russia is working hard just to managed the Ukraine war. They do not have the ability to widen it further.
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