It looks more and more like their plan counted on the Ukrainian Government fleeing in terror, and the Army collapsing as a result* ... so when that didn’t happen and they fought back, all the Russian assumption were hooped
many of us here recall those first few days of the war, EVERYBODY figured it would be over in a week or two - Russia was a freaking superpower! 20 times the size of Ukraine! with giant masses of tanks and rockets that could roll all over Western Europe in weeks, what possible chance could tiny Ukraine stand??
except now we realize we were lied-to over the years, and the Russian abilities were severely overestimated, because tiny Ukraine is still alive
* proof - look at how much the Russians personally hate Zelensky, they blame him for the operation not succeeding since he didn’t run away
I think many at the beginning, and dare I say even many today, think the Russians are bringing all they have to the table. If 200k is all Russia can field, then NATO and all of Europe have nothing to worry about.
But we must be somewhat careful, drawing conclusions based on the numbers involved. Theoretically it could easily be 4x greater than what we see on campaign in Ukraine today. And wise individuals would weigh land war with Russia on the assumption of millions of men at arms not hundreds of thousands. Just my .02.
Full transparency, I am merely watching a very old school type war in progress, without a dog in the fight. I honestly do not care about either side, and as a student of history understand that Europe has drawn and redrawn border lines long before us and will continue to do so long after us. I would like us to try to stay out of it for now, and if we are going to send weapons we send them cash on delivery. Then use that money to fix our problems here at home, rather than throwing our children’s money to the wind.