Russia Has No Reserves Left As Ukrainian Troops Surround A Key Eastern Town

Forbes ^ | Sep 18, 2022,05:11pm EDT | David Axe

[Zhang Fei]

May 27 was a dark day for Ukraine. That was the day Lyman, the last free town north of the Donets River in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas River, finally fell to Russian forces. Capturing Lyman helped the Russian army to consolidate its position in Donbas and secure supply lines across the region.

Lyman was a domino. As it fell, it knocked down Severodonetsk, the last free city east of the Donets. And as Severodonetsk fell, it toppled Lysychansk, its twin city on the opposite side of the river.

Nearly four months later, the dominos are falling in the opposite direction. A Ukrainian counteroffensive that kicked off east of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city 100 miles northwest of Lyman, in a heady two weeks has liberated a thousand square miles of northeast Ukraine.

Fleeing a dozen eager Ukrainian brigades, Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast —including the once-elite 1st Guard Tanks Army—have fled east across the Oskil River, leaving behind hundreds of vehicles and potentially thousands of casualties.

The Ukrainians’ momentum, weighted by aggressive air and artillery support, has carried them a short distance across the Oskil and south toward Lyman. Now several of Kyiv’s brigades—a mix of paratroopers and territorials—also are closing on Lyman ... from the opposite direction.

It’s a proverbial noose for the Russians in the town.

The Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. explained what’s at stake. “Further Ukrainian advances east along the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River could make Russian positions around Lyman untenable and open the approaches to Lysychansk and ultimately Severodonetsk.”

The Russians, in other words, might soon lose a lot of the territory they spent the summer—and much of their combat power—capturing.

The disposition of forces in and around Lyman favors the attackers.

[Zhang Fei]

Ukraine ping

Forbes’s David Axe raises the possibility that Ukraine’s gradual retreat in the East in late spring and early summer may have been part of a deliberate Fabian strategy to trade space for time. By luring the Russians into untenable positions, given their small numbers and educated guesses about the equipment and ammo they had left, the Ukrainians set the stage for the advances of September. How much of the stories about overwhelmed Ukrainians and their massive losses in the course of those retreats were part of an elaborate deception aimed at encouraging further Russian advances might only be known after the conflict is over. This would make it similar to the classic Mongol tactic of the feigned retreat, with large forces lying in wait for the pursuing enemy to tire themselves out.

[kabar]

Hard to know what is happening when you only receive one side of the story.

[Jumper]

The Russians broke down 7 years worth of fortifications built by the Ukraine. Those are gone now. What ever they traded it all boils down to everyone in the fight doing so from hasty positions ever changing.

The Donbas River will probably become the DMZ. This is what Russia originally wanted anyway.

Both sides have repositioned their forces in different sectors of strenght.

[jacknhoo]

This war porn is as old as the hills and almost as dusty.

[Its All Over Except ...]

Yep. And the MSM sure has zero credibility with all of the propaganda coming from the Ukrainians like the Ghost of Kiev, dozens more examples, smd the following:

Advisory - Story has been withdrawn - Multiple bodies found at mass burial site in Ukraine’s Izium with rope around necks

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4094318/posts

[ought-six]

“This would make it similar to the classic Mongol tactic of the feigned retreat, with large forces lying in wait for the pursuing enemy to tire themselves out.”

It’s an ancient, tried-and-true tactic. The Oglala Sioux used it against US troops in Wyoming in December, 1866. The tactic resulted in the utter and complete annihilation of the Fetterman column (which the Sioux referred to as the “Battle of the Hundred in the Hand”).

[dila813]

Yep, it was clear that was what they were doing all along.. attriting them as they did orderly retreats over and over

[Timber Rattler]

Advisory - Story has been withdrawn - Multiple bodies found at mass burial site in Ukraine’s Izium with rope around necks

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4094318/posts

Which is a totally dishonest assertion because 1) it was only the Reuters story that was withdrawn, and 2) Reuters withdrew the story about the ropes around the necks of the victims had not been see by its reporters YET, per the below statement.

IZIUM, Ukraine, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The article slugged UKRAINE-CRISIS (WRAPUP 6) is wrong and has been withdrawn, because Reuters reporters did not see the bodies with rope around their necks. A new WRAPUP 6 will be issued in due course. Reporting by Reuters bureaux Writing by Peter Graff Editing by Mark Heinrich

The story about the discovery of a mass grave site and exhumations this week is 100% accurate!

The Singular Offense of the Mass Grave

'Mass burial site containing 440 graves' found in Izyum after city liberated by Ukrainian forces

And there's VIDEO:

ONLY ON AP: Mass graves found in Izium

Ukraine finds hundreds in mass grave in Izium

But some of the Putinistas around here want to pretend that it's all a hoax, that nothing happened, and that the Russians are as pure as the driven snow.

Ridiculous!

[Kazan]

This article is steaming pile of horse manure as is anyone that believe it.

Russia has used 10% of it military in this war. The militias of the DPR and LPR along with mercenary groups have done most of the fighting.

But, we've heard Putin was dead or dying of stomach, thyroid and blood cancer during this war. We've also been told Russia was running out of ammunition or weapons every couple of weeks during it.

Gee, the Biden regime and Deep State lie. Who'd have thunk it?

[mmichaels1970]

Hard to know what is happening when you only receive one side of the story.

Agreed. The one thing I DO know is that it’s still going on. And that CAN’T be good for Russia.

[Chad_the_Impaler]

The Chechens who helped capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk have relocated down to Kherson. This weekend the Wagner group was firing on the Chechens in downtown Kherson for some reason.

[kabar]

Not good for Ukraine, Europe, and the US either. We are all paying a huge price. So what is the end game? Russia shares a 1,500 mile border with Ukraine. That is not going to change.

[Cen-Tejas]

FACT: Russia invaded the Ukraine. The Ukraine fought back. FR’s Putinista’s, broadly speaking, support Russia and NOT the Ukraine.

YES! Ridiculous! I agree.

[Its All Over Except ...]

@TR

How can you trust the rest of the story when much of their story has been withdrawn?

And the MSM has zero cred after Ghost of Kyiv and many stories like it debunked.

And... A steaming pile of thoroughly refuted links from you.

Secondly, I and others have said numerous times we support neither Zel or Putin but support the United States not getting into MIC wars of profit and adventure, don’t support the U.S. racking up another $30 trillion in debt, don’t support us getting in another quagmire like Iraq or in another proxy war like Syria, Yemen, etc. I have also challenged neocon doctrine from Bush, Cheney, McCain and challenged neoliberal doctrine from those like Obama, Biden, etc. Plus I have said numerous times I don’t care for Putin or Zel and have spoken against the machinations of Soros, Klaus, the WEF, etc.

But time and again I and others see some here speaking out against Putin and “Putinistas” but not against Biden’s war, Biden, neocon ideology, etc, etc, from them.

So the only conclusion we can come to is it seems there is sadly some love by some here for Obama, Biden, Soros, etc, and love for massive debt, sending Ukraine billions when we are broke as a nation, etc, going on here.

[Timber Rattler]

So you're actually going to deny that a mass grave was found at Izium, despite the overwhelming photographic and video evidence? We should just disbelieve our lying eyes? Is that it?

And BTW, it was Putin who invaded Ukraine, and not Biden, senile old fool that he is. Therefore, your straw man argument has no straw. And if you support Russia in Ukraine, then you are supporting evil, pure and simple.

Is THIS what you're about? Are you OK with THIS

[Widget Jr]

While I agree with the big points, the cheer leading of the war is getting old.

I've ask this before to those who think Russia can turn around the Kharkiv area:

#1. What Russian forces are available? (to turn it around in Kharkiv)
#2. How fast can they get to Ukraine?
#3. How is Russia going to support them?
#4. Who is going to lead the Russian response?
#5. What is the plan that is supposed to come together?

So far no one in the pro-Russia camp has addressed any of these questions.

[buwaya]

Sir Shepherd Creasy, “Fifteen Decisive Battles”, 1851

Its rather like the classic descriptions in that, only its proceeding in real time.

[buwaya]

Well, those are very important questions that both sides need to leave unanswered, they are legitimate military secrets. All we groundlings can do is infer the answers from available information.

[kiryandil]

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