He’s right in the sense that the ceiling is lower because the floor is higher. 20 is still too low though.
People need to remember than in 1994 and 2010, the GOP had a much lower floor to start from.
The GOP only had 176 seats going in to 1994 and 179 going into 2010. Hence the wave caused them to pick up a much larger number of seats before they hit the 230ish ceiling from the way the districts are drawn.
In 2014 (which was also a GOP wave year) the GOP only picked up 13 seats, but that was because in 2010, they had picked up so many seats and already had a solid majority.
There is a maximum ceiling due to district lines.
It’s much easier to go from 179 to 230 than it is to go from 230 to 242.
When you start hitting 230, you start to run out of swing districts.
All that said, Rove is wrong. 20 is too low.
20 would put the GOP on 232-233 seats, a solid majority on par with what they had through most of the 90s-00s. The GOP will win more than that. I think they can hit 240.
It’s a pipe dream to think you are going to get to 280 seats. That would require picking off 20+ Biden Districts in deep blue urban areas.
The average swing has been 10-12 points, so a lot of the swing districts will fall, but the deepest Blue seats are out of reach.
Nice analysis.
There are 435 members of The House of Representatives so 418 just gets you a majority. Even if Rove is right and we just get to 232 seats that leaves the Dems with 203.
But I like your 240 estimate better. That would make the margin 240 to 195. I mean we could bring Liz Cheney back and not have to worry.
Bottom line for me: Watch the GOP total on election night. Let’s see if we can break your 230 threshold and by how much.