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Russia Touts Rapid Mobilization but Faces Dilemma as Ukrainians Advance
The Wall Street Journal ^ | Oct. 4, 2022 | Stephen Fidler, Matthew Luxmoore and Thomas Grove

Posted on 10/04/2022 6:18:02 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican

Russia’s defense minister said 200,000 men had entered the army as part of a mobilization drive that began last month as the rapid advance of Ukrainian forces into Russian-occupied territories outpaces Moscow’s ability to pour in reinforcements.

The suggestion that Russia is already two-thirds of the way toward the target the minister, Sergei Shoigu, announced last month follows criticism of the call-up process—including from Russian President Vladimir Putin. But it raises questions as to whether the depleted Russian military will be able to cope with the sheer numbers of new recruits and use them effectively.

Western military analysts say Moscow faces a dilemma. It could rush ill-prepared troops to the front line to try to stem the losses—with likely little effect on the war’s momentum. Or it could wait until next year and send in better trained and equipped troops that could potentially make a difference on the battlefield. But by that time, Ukrainian forces could have secured significant further gains.

“It’s not going to help the Russians, at least not this winter, and they may well lose ground before that,” said Lawrence Freedman, professor emeritus of war studies at Kings College London.

(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Russia
KEYWORDS: afuoutovertheirskis; intothegunsdearukies; intothegunsoncemore; matthewluxmoore; oncemoreintotheguns; stephenfidler; tdaw; thomasgrove; tothelastukrainian; ttdaw
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1 posted on 10/04/2022 6:18:02 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

Bravo sierra


2 posted on 10/04/2022 6:20:27 PM PDT by ARGLOCKGUY
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To: ARGLOCKGUY

Sending poorly trained and quipped troops to face seasoned veterans will get those troops killed.


3 posted on 10/04/2022 6:22:14 PM PDT by ARGLOCKGUY
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To: ARGLOCKGUY

Why? You don’t believe it, or you just don’t want to believe it?


4 posted on 10/04/2022 6:22:37 PM PDT by Magnum44 (...against all enemies, foreign and domestic... )
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To: ARGLOCKGUY

On that we agree.


5 posted on 10/04/2022 6:23:55 PM PDT by Magnum44 (...against all enemies, foreign and domestic... )
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To: Magnum44

I know Russia will lose in the long run. I look forward to their lose.


6 posted on 10/04/2022 6:24:21 PM PDT by ARGLOCKGUY
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According to the Russian government, 200,000 men have already joined the Russian Armed Forces as part of the 300,000 called up for “partial mobilization”

On top of the 200,000 — the Russians claim that 70,000 volunteers that had not been issued summons have turned up for military service. This means that Russia could potentially deploy 370,000 men to Ukraine, instead of the original figure of 300,000 — if the information is accurate.

t.me/battleinsights


7 posted on 10/04/2022 6:24:31 PM PDT by Cathi
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To: ARGLOCKGUY
Sending poorly trained and quipped troops to face seasoned veterans will get those troops killed.

Get Europe to stop supplying Ukraine after a harsh winter. Use artillery to destroy infrastructure in Ukraine. Keep throwing Russian conscripts at Ukraine and use them as cannon fodder as they always do. It might work.

The ultimate question mark is how bad of a winter will Europe have this year? If it's mild, Russia will be $#it out of luck.

8 posted on 10/04/2022 6:26:10 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: ARGLOCKGUY

I misunderstood your first post.

FRegards,


9 posted on 10/04/2022 6:27:47 PM PDT by Magnum44 (...against all enemies, foreign and domestic... )
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To: ARGLOCKGUY

They’re already getting killed or surrendering.


10 posted on 10/04/2022 6:29:39 PM PDT by Timber Rattler ("To hold a pen is to be at war." --Voltaire)
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To: Cathi

They will be slaughtered all for one man’s ego


11 posted on 10/04/2022 6:30:59 PM PDT by blitz128
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To: Magnum44

“ Why? You don’t believe it, or you just don’t want to believe it?”

That river in Egypt..


12 posted on 10/04/2022 6:33:07 PM PDT by libh8er
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To: Cathi

“This means that Russia could potentially deploy 370,000 men to Ukraine”

Not enough men.

The major combatants in WWI/WWII had about 10% of their population under arms. There is no theoretical barrier to Ukraine reaching the same level, which would be 4 million men.

Even if they just get to 2 million, can Russia conscript that number without the people rising up against Putin’s regime?


13 posted on 10/04/2022 6:35:31 PM PDT by Renfrew
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To: Cathi
This means that Russia could potentially deploy 370,000 men to Ukraine, instead of the original figure of 300,000 — if the information is accurate.

It is possible.

Training, equipping, and transporting them may prove very difficult, given past performance and losses.

14 posted on 10/04/2022 6:38:13 PM PDT by marktwain
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To: MinorityRepublican

“Get Europe to stop supplying Ukraine after a harsh winter. “

Russia hopes for this, but it isn’t happening. Germany is the the only major nation that is dependent on Russian oil, and it is a minor supplier of weapons.

France, UK, Poland, Italy, and Scandinavia all have alternative gas supplies. The worst winter in history will still see Polish bullets in Ukrainian guns.


15 posted on 10/04/2022 6:38:55 PM PDT by Renfrew
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To: Renfrew
The major combatants in WWI/WWII had about 10% of their population under arms. There is no theoretical barrier to Ukraine reaching the same level, which would be 4 million men.

Even if they just get to 2 million, can Russia conscript that number without the people rising up against Putin’s regime?

Exactly.

With winter coming on, time is in favor of Ukraine.

They have the full economy of the West on their side.

Western weapons have been shown to be vastly superior.

Ukrainian moral has been shown to be superior (home court advantage).

Time is on the side of Ukraine.

16 posted on 10/04/2022 6:42:03 PM PDT by marktwain
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To: Renfrew
The major combatants in WWI/WWII had about 10% of their population under arms.

They were younger and healthier back then. So the percentage of the population that can be conscripted is less now. And it is more focused on logistics and technology. Russia can break a lot of stuff. That's about it.

17 posted on 10/04/2022 6:45:10 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

“They were younger and healthier back then.”

That is a good point. Populations were younger. I wouldn’t necessarily say healthier. This was pre-penicillin and a lot of young people were disabled from TB, VD, sepsis etc. Outside of a handful of rich countries most of the world also struggled with chronic malnutrition.

So yes, I do think 10% under arms as in the world wars would be hard, but 5% (2 million Ukrainians) is entirely possible.


18 posted on 10/04/2022 7:00:17 PM PDT by Renfrew
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To: MinorityRepublican

Seeing the videos of these mobilized troops reminds me of a line from the Al Stewart song “The Roads To Moscow”;

“The old men and children they send out to stop us, can’t slow us down”


19 posted on 10/04/2022 7:15:43 PM PDT by fella ("As it was before Noah so shall it be again,")
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To: MinorityRepublican

There are some Russian soldiers marching
They hear a voice shout from over a hill,

“I bet one Ukrainian can beat ten Russians!”

The Russian sergeant, thinking that it would be easy, sent ten men over the hill to fight. They heard a fighting and noise. No Russian soldiers came back. After a minute they heard the voice again,

“I bet 1 Ukrainian can beat 100 Russians!”

The sergeant, getting more annoyed now, decided to send some of his men over, to finish this Ukrainian off.

After a while of noise and bangs, no Russian soldiers came back, and the voice shouted again,

“I bet 1 Ukrainian can beat 1000 Russians!”

The sergeant, thinking that 1 soldier could not possibly beat 1000, sent his troops over.

Again, there was lots of noise, but then, silence.

1 Russian soldier returned this time, bloody and bruised, barely walking. The soldier said:

“Don’t send any more men over; there’s actually 2 Ukrainians.”


20 posted on 10/04/2022 7:16:41 PM PDT by DannyTN
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