“There are really only two ways to interpret what is happening. One is the western spin: the Russian army is defeated and depleted and is being driven from the field. Putin is deranged, his commanders are incompetent, and Russia’s only card left to play is to throw drunk, untrained conscripts into the meat grinder.
The other is the interpretation that I have advocated, that Russia is massing for a winter escalation and offensive, and is currently engaged in a calculated trade wherein they give up space in exchange for time and Ukrainian casualties. Russia continues to retreat where positions are either operationally compromised or faced with overwhelming Ukrainian numbers, but they are very careful to extract forces out of operational danger. In Lyman, where Ukraine threatened to encircle the garrison, Russia committed mobile reserves to unblock the village and secure the withdrawal of the garrison. Ukraine’s “encirclement” evaporated, and the Ukrainian interior ministry was bizarrely compelled to tweet (and then delete) video of destroyed civilian vehicles as “proof” that the Russian forces had been annihilated.
Russia will likely continue to pull back over the coming weeks, withdrawing units intact under their artillery and air umbrella, grinding down Ukrainian heavy equipment stocks and wearing away their manpower. Meanwhile, new equipment continues to congregate in Belgorod, Zaporizhia, and Crimea. My expectation remains the same: episodic Russian withdrawal until the front stabilizes roughly at the end of October, followed by an operational pause until the ground freezes, followed by escalation and a winter offensive by Russia once they have finished amassing sufficient units.
There is an eerie calm radiating from the Kremlin. “
“Politics By Other Means”
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/politics-by-other-means
This is not good....
The end of the lockdowns in China could eventually lead to the depletion of world oil reserves.
Writes about it Bloomberg.
The agency also reports that in the near future, recovering demand in China may significantly increase the price of oil.
Bloomberg
Europe Edition
• Live Now
Chinese Oil Demand to Rebound as
Refiners Rush to Use Quotas
■ Beijing issues multiple allowances for oil imports, fuel flows
■ Refinery runs to be increased over coming two months, FGE says
Yes, and as soon as Steiner's army breaks through and demolishes the encirclement of Berlin, the Führer will emerge triumphant!
Clinical levels of delusion there!
Regards,