Hrm... the poll seems to UNDER-sample Republicans. Given Fabrizio & Lee, I’d guess this is a result of random sampling and not an effort to skew the poll towards the Democrats, but it DOES mean that they didn’t simply by chance OVER-sample.
Registration in NH is 30.5 Rep, 28.2 Dem. This poll is 32 Rep, 32 Dem. And this doesn’t factor in the anti-incumbency turnout typical in year-2 elections. And nationally, the trend is for increasing Republican identification, and actual registration normally massively trails the identification reported to the pollsters. So this moves NH firmly into the tossup category, and I even expect it will go Republican.
THIS IS NOT CHERRY-PICKING POLLS. This is the first poll out of New Hampshire in about two weeks!!!
There is a large libertarian contingent to take into account in NH. The problem is, they tend to vote party, which will take votes away from republicans.
If they would just pull the trigger and vote for a conservative/republican candidate like Bolduc, they could handily keep Hassan, or almost any other democrat, out of office.
By splitting the vote, we end up with big government democrats in power, the very thing libertarians say they oppose.