It’s called election modeling. They know which precincts went for Kari in the primary. No one who voted for Kari in August would switch to Hobbs 3 months later. These ppl aren’t talking out of their a$$es. They’re data gurus and know what’s gonna happen based on the numbers.
Well, that sounds hopeful, but same scenario played out in AZ back in 2020, when we expected those drop-offs would put Trump and McSally over the top. I hope Lake can somehow pull this out. It doesn’t look very good for Masters now, though.