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The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative
NYT ^ | 12/31/2022 | Jim Rutenberg, Ken Bensinger and Steve Eder

Posted on 12/31/2022 5:54:28 AM PST by semimojo

Surveys showing strength for Republicans, often from the same partisan pollsters, set Democratic klaxons blaring in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Colorado. Coupled with the political factors already favoring Republicans — including inflation and President Biden’s unpopularity — the skewed polls helped feed what quickly became an inescapable political narrative: A Republican wave election was about to hit the country with hurricane force.

Democrats in each of those states went on to win their Senate races. Ms. Murray clobbered Ms. Smiley by nearly 15 points…

Traditional nonpartisan pollsters, after years of trial and error and tweaking of their methodologies, produced polls that largely reflected reality. But they also conducted fewer polls than in the past.

That paucity allowed their accurate findings to be overwhelmed by an onrush of partisan polls in key states that more readily suited the needs of the sprawling and voracious political content machine — one sustained by ratings and clicks, and famished for fresh data and compelling narratives.

The skewed red-wave surveys polluted polling averages, which are relied upon by campaigns, donors, voters and the news media. It fed the home-team boosterism of an expanding array of right-wing media outlets — from Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast and “The Charlie Kirk Show” to Fox News and its top-rated prime-time lineup. And it spilled over into coverage by mainstream news organizations, including The Times, that amplified the alarms being sounded about potential Democratic doom.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:
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The inaccurate polling pendulum had swung. What are we to make of polls next cycle?
1 posted on 12/31/2022 5:54:28 AM PST by semimojo
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To: semimojo

It is who counts the votes that matters.


2 posted on 12/31/2022 5:56:12 AM PST by ARGLOCKGUY
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To: semimojo

no, polls were more honest than democrat run elections.


3 posted on 12/31/2022 6:01:03 AM PST by dblshot
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To: ARGLOCKGUY

And the one who sets the printer preferences... And collects the ballots... And buys the judges...


4 posted on 12/31/2022 6:01:39 AM PST by Cowman
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To: semimojo

Every poll had Lake well ahead of her opponent..who refused to debate and was generally a poor candidate.
And then there was the brain surgeon vs the guy who needed brain surgery.

And Biden ..who is as dirty as they come..


5 posted on 12/31/2022 6:06:05 AM PST by Leep (Hillary will NEVER be president! 😁)
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To: semimojo

I contend the polls were accurate. The election fraud machine is here to stay.


6 posted on 12/31/2022 6:06:18 AM PST by rarestia (“A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one.” -Hamilton)
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RAT cheating and FRAUD carried the results…if anything, polls were skewed more towards RATS…


7 posted on 12/31/2022 6:08:20 AM PST by TnTnTn
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To: semimojo

Overturning Roe and the claim Republicans want to end Social Security worked to the Dems favor. Other issues and Current conditions didn’t matter as in voters believed it couldn’t get worse. They’re in for a surprise. The WH has declared intention to obstruct Republican efforts. Enjoy the decline.


8 posted on 12/31/2022 6:09:35 AM PST by griswold3 (Truth, Beauty and Goodness )
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To: semimojo
Re: Lake loss in Court.:

the Judge ruled that Lake’s legal team did not prove intent. Why was that important in a civil matter? I could see intent being applicable in a criminal matter, but if they proved there were serious issues regarding the election, then that should have been sufficient to rule in her favor. Once again it appears we have a judge who chose not to rule in favor of justice.

9 posted on 12/31/2022 6:12:56 AM PST by Michael.SF. ( The problem today: people are more concerned about feelings than responsibility)
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To: griswold3

The people who promise something for nothing will win every election until it is proven that they cannot deliver. So far, the Fed and and the Congress have done nothing to stop them from delivering.


10 posted on 12/31/2022 6:13:32 AM PST by Mr. Jeeves ([CTRL]-[GALT]-[DELETE])
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To: griswold3

Lindsay Graham sticking his nose into the whole abortion issue with his national ban was just as divisive and contradictory as having nationwide abortion on demand being imposed. And it acted as an early Christmas gift for Democrat votes in numerous areas.


11 posted on 12/31/2022 6:14:11 AM PST by OttawaFreeper ("The Gardens was founded by men-sportsmen-who fought for their country" Conn Smythe, 1966 )
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To: semimojo

First off ignore all “generic” polls. Races aren’t “generic” just because one party leads nationally in the “generic” doesn’t mean they’re going to win an actual election.

Next ignore the other polls too. They’re so challenging, especially in this modern age with all our ability to avoid phone calls. Pollsters are up the creak.

If you really want to know ahead of time who is going to win an election find the contribution data. The candidate that’s getting the most individual contributions, not money mind you, the count of PEOPLE giving money, wins most of the time. Because if you’ve got more people willing to “vote” for you with their money you’ve probably go more people willing to vote for you for free.


12 posted on 12/31/2022 6:15:03 AM PST by discostu (like a dog being shown a card trick)
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To: semimojo

“Klaxons ... sprawling ... voracious ... famished ... polluted ...”

Those three guys know how to use a thesaurus.

But the way they hype up the language like that makes me think that there’s less to the story than they think.


13 posted on 12/31/2022 6:15:55 AM PST by x
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To: semimojo

I thought the polls were wrong because of pure corruption.


14 posted on 12/31/2022 6:15:56 AM PST by big bad easter bunny
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To: semimojo

This is just Slimes backfilling on The Narrative.

It’s a way to snooth over the steal in places like Arizona.

“See Little People? You were lied to, all those Mean Republicans don’t really have the support they said they did.”

That’s the line here.


15 posted on 12/31/2022 6:18:05 AM PST by Regulator (It's fraud, Jim)
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To: semimojo

USA 2.0 will require in-person voting on paper ballots. Assuming the reset does not destroy civilization to the point where documented history is not totally eliminated.


16 posted on 12/31/2022 6:21:07 AM PST by Bernard (“the rights of man come not from the generosity of the state but from the hand of God." JFK 1-20-61)
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To: semimojo

Or election fraud changed the outcome.


17 posted on 12/31/2022 6:24:54 AM PST by Rurudyne (Standup Philosopher)
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To: semimojo

Pollsters didn’t take into account two important factors: 1). The emergence of legions of hyper-leftist Gen-Z voters and 2) The broad popularity of abortion in this country.


18 posted on 12/31/2022 6:25:13 AM PST by ScottinVA
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To: dblshot

Wow! The next election is two years away and media is already starting the election propoganda.


19 posted on 12/31/2022 6:28:56 AM PST by Four of Six
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To: Leep
Every poll had Lake well ahead of her opponent..who refused to debate and was generally a poor candidate.

Lake torpedoed her campaign in the final week, doing an appearance with Steve Bannon and telling McCain supporters to "get the hell out" of a campaign event.

This was stupid. She already had Trump's MAGA base in her back pocket. It were independents and McCain voters she needed to bring home. Instead, she reminded them that she's just too "Trumpy" and lost their votes.

20 posted on 12/31/2022 6:31:47 AM PST by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President 2024)
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