Posted on 02/01/2023 3:39:15 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
Ukraine's defence minister has said Russia is preparing a major new offensive, and warned that it could begin as soon as 24 February.
Oleksii Reznikov said Moscow had amassed thousands of troops and could "try something" to mark the anniversary of the initial invasion last year.
The attack would also mark Russia's Defender of the Fatherland Day on 23 February, which celebrates the army.
Mr Reznikov said Moscow had mobilised some 500,000 troops for the offensive.
In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a general mobilisation of some 300,000 conscripted troops, which he said was necessary to ensure the country's "territorial integrity".
(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.com ...
Doesn’t that rub up close to mud season?
Thats awful nice of Putin to call and give the exact date.
This crap needs to stop. The 82nd is now on IFR-1. We already have 100k troops in Europe and they are gearing up for more. These globalist warmongers are just itching for a shooting war with our troops. They don’t give a damn about America or those that defend our nation.
That’s IRF-1, not IFR-1.
Pre-Ukraine there were @80,000 US servicemen in Europe.
The vast majority were HQ and service troops, Air Force and Navy.
There were few maneuver units. Not counting artillery here -
The 173rd Airborne was in Italy as usual.
There was a Brigade regularly rotating into Poland as usual.
Besides additional support, artillery and training units, it looks like there is an extra Brigade heading in to Poland.
Thats not exactly a WW3 deployment.
Frozen water season to allow vehicles to drive over. Fewer bridging requirements.
What the Russians want is frozen ground so their tanks don’t have to take roads.
They are likely to attack when their tanks are not likely to get stuck in mud.
I wonder, even if all of Ukraine was solid cement and asphalt, if Russian tanks can lead an attack against men with drones, the spy and satellite apparatus of another superpower, very accurate artillery and HIMARS, without seeing every T-## turret flying into low Earth orbit?
Meant to also add, personal antitank weapons and MAPATS.
“Thats awful nice of Putin to call and give the exact date.”
Vladimir Zhirinovsky made a speech to the Duma on December 27, 2021 which was addressed in part to NATO in the event that it didn’t accept Russia’s demand to demilitarise and kick out all of its members in eastern Europe.
There are several translations of his speech, and you can watch the speech in the original Russian on Youtube without translation.
But all translations broadly end up saying this:
“If you refuse we can choose another route. What kind? you’ll find out at 4 o’clock in the morning on February 22nd. I wanted 2022 to be a peaceful year, but I love the truth! 75 years of telling the truth! This will not be a peaceful year. This will be the year when Russia finally becomes great again. And everyone should shut up and respect our country.”
Yup, almost two months before Putin went medieval on south Ukraine, Vladimir Zhirinovsky didn’t just name the date and time of the Special Military Operation, he also said it before even knowing what NATO’s response was going to be to Putin’s demands.
So unless Putin told Vladimir Zhirinovsky his plans on that day, Putin blew the timetable of his own invasion over seven weeks ahead of it.
So “awfully nice of Putin to call and give the exact date” has already happened once.
I do not think there will be an “offensive” like we all think of.
I think it will become one big last meat grinding push..more intensive like has been going on in the past few weeks to year.
It takes 25 to 30 inches of good ice to support the weight of a tank that is 30 tons.
GOOD ICE.
That is a lot of cold freezing weather.
BTW..you dont just simply drive onto a frozen lake full bore and run across it at high speed. You’ll blow to ice out.
When do we get to gin up a “winter offensive” to protect our own southern border from the massive invasion now in progress?
Those who want the war to stop would try to convince Putin to withdraw all of his invading army from Ukraine. Those who are sympathetic to Putin and the Russian way of government will continue to demand that the United States and many allies stop providing weapons for Ukraine and will demand that Ukrainians surrender to Putin and subject themselves to his troops.
The soil in southeastern Ukraine will sometimes be thawing in late February and decidedly thawed in March. As with last year, the Russians may soon be mainly confined to running columns on well compacted roads in order to avoid the probable muddy conditions. During the end of spring and summer ahead, there will likely be high intensity conflict; something many of the wealthiest investors in trade imbalances against the U.S.A. have said would never happen again.
Sure, it is frozen in February. But, only a few weeks from mud season in March.
“FEWER” bridging requirements.
The pro-Russia Putinistas have changed their tune again. When the US, Ukraine or NATO talked about a new Russian mobilization, it was "all lies!" and "Western propaganda!". Now that Russia and Russia Shilll Inc. are saying the same, they shift their narratives. "The West must avoid World War III!" etc, Because to them only the US and NATO can escalate, not Russia.
Just how Russia is going to deploy 500,000 to 700,000, when operationally, they have had a limit of 200,000 in Ukraine since the start. Russian logistics is trains and trucks, limited aviation and ship. After HIMARs got started Russia put their logistics 50 km back. Ukraine is going to get 150 km range GLSDBs. How Russia is going to deploy 2.5 to 3.5 times as many soldiers with logistics push 100 km or more away from the front lines will be one neat trick.
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