“That makes no sense - why would they have Trump doing better in urban then?”
There are all kinds of possibilities. But first off, just to be clear, we’re talking percentages, not absolute numbers. Trump likely increased his total vote count across all categories of voters from 2016 to 2020, since, even by the official vote count, he got 12 million more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016.
But as far as percentages go Trump could have remained the same, or even increased with soccer moms, while increasing with urban voters by a larger amount. His approval among blacks and hispanics improved between 2016 and 2020. The distortions caused by weighing their polling results to fit false vote totals could have been enough to give the appearance that Biden won soccer moms, but it wasn’t enough to totally erase Trump’s increase with urban voters.
Or, like all the other polls, he is doing atrociously with suburban women