So the General SVR take for the past 3 months on this has been that Xi has been telling Putin to show battlefield success quickly or to make concessions to end the war and Putin said that he would only discuss the concessions in a personal meeting with Xi. So we’ll see what happens next week. Especially since Putin’s winter offensive failed.
I think the Russian plan is/was to present Bakhmut as a Stalingrad like defeat for Ukraine and use that to bully them into another Minsk deal style frozen conflict. Russia has the rotating chair of the security council next month. So the timing is perfect for the usual Bolshevik gaslighting and the Kremlin’s useful idiots will be lined up to support whatever Putin does. Maybe invite the pope to NYC for a “peace conference”, etc.