Posted on 03/21/2023 12:52:50 PM PDT by elpadre
Bakhmut is encircled. All roads in and out of it are under Russian artillery fire. Over the last three days fighting has largely stopped there. No one seems to know why the operation was halted.
There are unconfirmed claims that Ukraine is preparing a counterattack to free Bakhmut from its encirclement. That attack is supposed to go off as soon as the muddy ground has dried up a bit.
Meanwhile other encirclement has taken place in Avdiivka:
Avdiivka (Ukrainian: Авдіївка, IPA: [ɐu̯ˈd(j)ijiu̯kɐ]; is a city of regional significance in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. The city is located in the center of the oblast, just north of the city of Donetsk. The large Avdiivka Coke Plant is located in Avdiivka. The city had a pre-war population of 31,392 (2022 est.); in August 2022, its population was estimated at 2,500.
Avdiivka was within the claimed boundaries of the separatist Donetsk People's Republic, before Russia declared its annexation of the entire region in September 2022. During the war in Donbas, Avdiivka became a frontline city and saw a battle in 2017. During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, heavy fighting led to Avdiivka being largely destroyed and most of its population having fled.
(Excerpt) Read more at moonofalabama.org ...
This is a good situation update
excerpted:
“...This is now the second Ukrainian held area on the Donetsk front that is in operational encirclement. In both areas the Russian follow Sun Tzu’s advice to not completely close off an encirclement but to leave a route out. This prevents fanatical defenses by encircled troops or it may even lead the enemy to push more forces into a hopeless position....”
Bakhmut has been encircled and doomed to Russian conquest for eight months now. Must be a lot of washing machines in Bakhmut to be worth 30,000+ Russian dead.
We’ll see
Is this the 20th or 25th encirclement? I’ve lost count. /s
“..be worth 30,000+ Russian dead...”
Where can I find valid data on casualties?? I have seen numerous conflicting figures but never a believable source.
The Russians are trying to increase crisis zones so that the Ukrainians can’t form a counter-offensive.
This “article” claims Bakhmut is surrounded because Russian artillery can blast the supply corridors. In that case, the Russians are also surrounded because the Ukrainian artillery can blast their supply corridors.
>Where can I find valid data on casualties?? I have seen numerous conflicting figures but never a believable source.
In my estimation it seems like 15,000 Russians, 30,000 Wagner, and 150,000 - 200,000 Ukrainians have died. The BBC used AI to glean Russian death notices and found about 10-20K russian troop death notices. 30k wagner because of offensive operations on the line. 150k-200k ukrainians, maybe more because of troop replacements and conscriptions.
15,000 Russians,
—
You might want to add a zero to that number.
AI is only as good as its programmers and their agendas. Plus death notices are a poor way to count the dead.
I wonder how long it will be before Biden runs out of Ukrainian Pawns to sacrifice?
The ground dries up May.
“That attack is supposed to go off as soon as the muddy ground has dried up a bit.”
For 8 years causing thousands of civilian deaths...
“Avdiivka is strongly fortified. Its coke plant is a strong-point. The Ukrainian army used the city to lob artillery into Donetsk city.”
Sun Tzu said, in The Art of War, 7. MANEUVERING wrote,
When you surround an army, leave an outlet free.
This does not mean that the enemy is to be allowed to escape. The object, as Tu Mu puts it, is “to make him believe that there is a road to safety, and thus prevent his fighting with the courage of despair.” Tu Mu adds pleasantly: “After that, you may crush him.”
We will soon see whether Russia allows Ukes (that don’t surrender) to escape, or they crush them.
“Trying to fully encircle an enemy army and then reducing it if it is prepared to fight can be risky. Probably better to prepare a killing ground in the area you know the enemy will escape through and persuade the enemy to escape through it by shaping the battlefield.
Back in WW2, a Japanese army was isolated north of Rangoon and decided to break out across the Sittang River. British became aware of plan and decided to disrupt the breakout by establishing fortified positions to allow artillery and machine gun fire onto the retreating Japanese and using CAS.
From combat, Japanese dead 8,500, British dead 95.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Sittang_Bend
All of the supposedly informed in Russia's favor has not changed what is happening on the ground one inch. For all its claimed importance of Bakhmut and now Avdiivka, if Russia captures either is a long road to get anywhere else.
I wish we could send out violent career criminals there too......either side would be fine. apparently you cannot read a map. Bakhmut is almost surrounded and Ukraine has last a lot of troops (unfortunately) too.
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