Posted on 05/24/2023 3:09:47 AM PDT by Timber Rattler
A two-day incursion from Ukraine into Russia's western borderlands could force the Kremlin to divert troops from front lines as Kyiv prepares a major counteroffensive, and deal Moscow a psychological blow, according to military analysts.
Though Kyiv has denied any role, the biggest cross-border raid from Ukraine since Russia invaded 15 months ago was almost certainly coordinated with Ukraine's armed forces as it prepares to attempt to recapture territory, the experts added.
"The Ukrainians are trying to pull the Russians in different directions to open up gaps. The Russians are forced to send reinforcements," said Neil Melvin, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
Ukraine says it plans to conduct a major counteroffensive to seize back occupied territory, but Russia has built sprawling fortifications in its neighbour's east and south in readiness.
The incursion took place far from the epicentre of fighting in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region and around 100 miles (160 km) from the front lines in the northern Kharkiv region.
"They'll have to respond to this and put troops there and then have lots of troops all along the border area, even though that may not be the way the Ukrainians are coming," Melvin said.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
The Legion of Free Russia has entered village Bogun-Gorodok in #Belgorod (VIDEO)
Highway E105/M2, on the outskirts of Belograd, is almost a straight shot into Moscow.
Come on now. The Ukie group was easily pushed back, 70 eliminated, all their US equipment ( 2 MRAPs, Humvees , US AT4’s , US MG’s captured or destroyed).
Plenty of video available showing the captured US MRAPS, Ukie bodies, etc….if you care to find it, if not, carry on.
The timing was odd, their suicide mission was launched when “ Fortress Bakmut” ( Zelensky’s words) finally collapsed . “Zelensky’s line” is collapsing, and there is nothing the collective West can do about it- their hodge podge welfare gifts of tanks, Patriots and even F-16’s isn’t going to change the outcome.
This guy was very informative on Bakhmut
UPDATE ANALYSIS BELGOROD MAY 24
Proukrainians tried to keep the psyops offensive alive, but failed. Weak russian border defences.
After reading comments on my earlier tweet and more news about the Belgorod operation I have some more thoughts on the situation.
At the same time calm settled among russian military bloggers, proukrainians tried to keep the offensive into Russia alive. There where both claims that all russian reports and photos of russian successes were false. Earlier claims of more incursions into Russia along the border where kept alive, as in the map below, by saying that the situation is unclear so for the time being those areas where seen as contested.
I’ve seen that some of the tweets I wanted to borrow photos from to illustrate this, have been deleted during the night, which is telling by itself. Further claims will probably die out and the thing will be forgotten in silence. As the ukrainian MoD:s daily report on the war. Yesterday it didn’t include Bakhmut for the first time in a long while, which also is telling.
Some asked why I didn’t say it was russians who invaded Russia? These russians serve in the UkrAF, are supported and equipped by the UkrAF, so in my world they are part of the UkrAF, even if they are foreigners.
A personal reflection is that I was surprised how easy it was for the ukrainians to cross the russian border. But the border is long and russian resources are limited. If RuAF wants to strengthen the border defences without reducing forces elsewhere, they need more soldiers.
Can’t Russia solve this with existing forces or must they pull reserves from other fronts to reinforce the border area? There are enough russian forces in Belarus, Bryansk and Belgorod to secure the border, but RuAF want to have regional reserves to counter if Ukraine would launch a real counteroffensive in those areas.
At the same time those regional reserves forces Ukraine to keep strong forces in the north and at least some strategic reserves in readiness in case of russian offensives from the north.
There are four different methods for Russia to handle this. Two short term and two long term methods. The short term methods are to move either their conscripts or units from the strategic reserves to the borderlands.
Young conscripts are not taking part in the war and train within Russia. You could send them after basic training or extend their service time with six months, until the next batch of conscripts are available. That would be the easiest way to increase russian troop strength fast, with newly trained soldiers. This could result in at most, 150-200 000 new available soldiers.
The second quick option is to move part of the reserves to the frontline, but that would decrease the troops available on other fronts.
The both long term solutions are establishment of a territorial defence or a new mobilisation. Both options would probably take up to 3-6 months until these methods make a major impact.
A last reflection is that I don’t know whether there was any nuclear weapons still in storage near the border. The russians say that they where moved away earlier. The ukrainians claim that they hurriedly was moved when the ukrainian units closed in and where just 4-5 km away. Ukrainian claims could be just another psyops, but if not, it would be remarkable if Russia still stored nuclear weapons close to a weakly defended border
https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1661283636346249216
I bet the Ukrainians next strategic move is to march on what was known at one time as Stalingrad, since the last foreign army to march on Russia succeeded so spectacularly.
In other words, in a nutshell.... the war continues.
...Highway E105/M2...is almost a straight shot into Moscow.
Sounds simple enough.
same as it ever was.....same as it ever was....
Now Russia has the ability to (falsely) claim "defensive" attack in order to prevent Chechnyan Ukrainian "terrorist" attacks.
Thanks for the insight, General Turgidson. I hope you have a comb for that “mussed hair”. By the way, don’t you mean Bakhmut? Oh wait, that was last week’s version.
All this has done is help Putin unite the Russian people for the war. It was a gamble. Lost a few Russian members of the UAF that might not have trusted. The Summer attack will finish Zelenskyy—Putin just needs to keep this borders and wait for the money to dry up for the 51st State of the Union. Then it will be Kabul all over again.
All for the little weasels in the CIA/DOD/government grifters and corporations to put on the cloak of Captain America defending liberty... and waste 10's of thousands of men's lives and destroy Ukraine.
They get to sit back, eat fat, pack their bank accounts and tell each other how great they are.....
I know why the Ukes are going to lose... I didn't see any women or drag queens on the GoPro camera footage in the trenches. Not a lot of fat bodies either..... just men doing the dirty work in the trenches with artillery and drones....
I just laugh in sadness when I see the soft training and soft bodies in some of the videos of our armed forces.
Actaully, the Russian rebels have pulled back but are still in Russia, and they have entered in two more areas around Belogord
https://youtu.be/vAOXAepQnns?t=150
Valeurs Actuelles: the number of dead soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is Zelensky's worst secretThe number of dead soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is Zelensky's most terrible secret in this conflict, writes Valeurs Actuelles.
At the same time, since the end of the summer, the number of killed and wounded has increased sharply, and the number of conscripts has recently decreased significantly.
"From 40 to 60 percent of the first Ukrainian servicemen, whom we trained on French soil in 2022, no longer get in touch," one reliable source told our publication. "We think that most of them are silent because they have already died in battle." French instructors who have established contact with their Ukrainian students are limited only to assumptions about their fates. According to those who nevertheless decided to address this issue to the military authorities in Kiev, the topic causes only discontent among representatives of Ukraine. The death toll remains the most terrible secret of President Vladimir Zelensky, although, judging by all available external data, there is no doubt that since the end of summer, the number of dead and injured has increased dramatically. For example, we have just learned that the number of students has increased by 82% in a few months, as this status allows young people to avoid the ongoing mobilization in the country.
The latest numbers of conscription for the blue-yellow flag have significantly decreased compared to the beginning of hostilities. Despite the reinforcements, the ranks of the units are thinning. In nine brigades formed with the help of NATO for the future spring offensive, there are from 2.5 to three thousand people, whereas by the standards of the North Atlantic Alliance their number should be from five to eight thousand. Away from the eyes of journalists and media workers, the Ukrainian military are painting a "war picture" for their foreign partners, which looks more like raw information from the front than what Western news channels report without unnecessary details. In the Donbass throughout the winter, they confirm, their people were under constant onslaught of Russian troops. And the units located on the contact line were always in a state of readiness for battle against superior enemy forces because of "their absolute superiority."
Russian artillery is three times more
These testimonies correspond to the calculations of the balance of power made by the French military. According to them, Russians have about three times more artillery pieces in the Donbass than Ukrainians. Kiev is also suffering from another well-known problem: the arsenals of its allies have been depleted, and industrial capacities in the West are recovering too slowly. Today, Russian troops produce an average of 15 thousand shots a day, and Ukrainians respond with five thousand shots. Since most of the dead and wounded in this conflict are accounted for by artillery, some experts do not agree that the losses of the parties are equal. This point of view was previously held by American official sources, but they have already revised their forecasts. In January, they reported 100,000 dead and wounded on both sides. At the beginning of May, they were already talking about "at least 200,000 and possibly 250,000 killed and wounded." This is a confirmation that the "trench war" is especially bloody. News about constant losses also comes from Artemovsk.
"Yes, Ukrainians have fewer weapons, but they are much more effective and their servicemen use them more correctly," the supporters of the theory of "equal" forces object. They argue their claims with the presence in Kiev of French Caesar artillery installations and American HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems. Those who downplay the effect of these weapons ("there are too few of them") claim that over the past eight months Ukrainians have lost at least twice as many people as Russians. Thus, in any case, the balance of power has changed compared to the beginning of the conflict.
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Strategic depth…
In the "battle of attrition" (the depletion of the enemy's human and material potential, in military terms), Russia has a serious advantage over Ukraine. Its population is three and a half times larger (143 million versus 41 million). However, the question of the "permissibility" of deaths is probably more sensitive for Russians. As long as there are enough volunteers called up on very attractive financial terms to replenish the ranks, Vladimir Putin will undoubtedly be satisfied, and the generals will have to adjust their strategy accordingly. In early May, during a speech to Congress, General Christopher Cavoli, the commander of American troops in Europe and the military head of NATO, tempered the ardor of an official who spoke approvingly about the latest assessment of Russian losses made by the Pentagon. "Most of the Russian army has not suffered in this conflict," Cavoli said.
▪️ PMC "Wagner" had 3.2 times fewer dead than the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and about 2 times fewer wounded.
▪️ The PMC in Artyomovsk had 50,000 people at its best, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine - 82,000, and the ratio for the assault should be 3 to 1 for the attackers.
▪️During the operation, I chose 50,000 prisoners, 20% of them died, another 20% were injured.
▪️The goal of Artemovsk was not Artemovsk itself, but the Bakhmut Meat Grinder. And in Artemovsk, we destroyed everyone we were supposed to destroy, we completed the task.
▪️The task was completed due to the highest level of organization.
▪️We have our own: planes, helicopters, air defense, artillery, MLRS, reconnaissance and even our own satellite reconnaissance.
diversity in Israel
will put the plo - hamas in charge
just like the ussa
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