Posted on 06/21/2023 8:04:22 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
When Barack Obama won Florida just over a decade ago, Democratic registrants outnumbered Republicans in the Sunshine State by around 800,000. Republicans remained competitive because of strong turnout and support from independents, but they grappled with this structural disadvantage. During the DeSantis governorship, the red and blue lines crossed, with GOP registrations edging into the lead. By early 2022, Florida Republicans' registration advantage pushed into six figures. By last fall's Election Day, it had swelled even further, setting the table for an epic, dominant GOP sweep.
While the national red wave was a dud of historic proportions, with a handful of exceptions, the Florida red wave resulted in achievements of historic proportions. DeSantis expanded his fractional 2018 general election victory margin from a little more than 30,000 raw votes to more than 1.5 million raw votes. He won by nearly 20 percentage points -- unheard-of dominance, flipping multiple blue counties into the red column, and carrying key demographic groups among whom Republican candidates have struggled in recent cycles. And the gains keep coming:
BREAKING: Florida Republicans now outnumber Democrats by just under 500,000 registered voters
The state's Democratic Party has now lost over 154,000 voters since November 2022— Florida’s Voice (@FLVoiceNews) June 20, 2023
Approaching half-a-million. Talk about reversing a structural disadvantage. This is part of the case Team DeSantis is leveraging to emphasize electability in a general election setting. The Trump campaign has been touting some polls showing their candidate not only leading the primary field by a long shot, but also ahead of Biden. Other polling shows Trump atop the GOP field, but trailing or tied with Biden -- the strikingly unpopular president who most voters see as too old for the job. A new national survey shows erosion among Republican voters, and a far weaker picture for the former president, in terms of the electorate's post-indictment mood:
Most Americans approve of Trump’s indictment stemming from his alleged mishandling of classified documents after leaving office, even as 71% say politics played a role in that charging decision. Though Trump continues to lead the GOP field by a wide margin in the race for the Republican Party’s nomination for president, the poll suggests that his support has declined, as have positive views of him among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Nearly a quarter now say they would not consider backing his candidacy under any circumstances...Overall, 47% of Republicans and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump is their first choice for the party’s nomination for president, down from 53% in a May CNN poll. Support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis held steady at 26% in the latest poll, with former Vice President Mike Pence at 9%, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 5%, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott at 4%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3% and the remaining candidates at 1% or less.
In addition to the decline in support for Trump’s candidacy, his favorability rating among Republican-aligned voters has dipped, from 77% in May to 67% now...Few in the GOP want to see Trump drummed out of the race or repudiated by his party in response to the indictment...Outside of the Republican Party, though, these charges are broadly viewed as disqualifying. Among all Americans, 59% say that Trump ought to end his campaign now that he’s facing federal charges...Overall, even as 61% of Americans approve of the decision to indict the former president, majorities across party lines believe politics played a role in the decision to charge him, including 53% of Democrats, 67% of independents and 92% of Republicans...67% of independents [approve of the federal charges].
In this poll, two-thirds of independent voters say that politics played a role in the charges, yet the exact same percentage of independents still support the charges. They're willing to say, yes, politics is a part of this, but we are glad it happened anyway. Nearly six-in-ten American voters overall support the charges, even as Republicans are heavily opposed. Does the target of said charges seem like someone who is well-positioned to win a rematch election against a candidate to whom he's already lost? Or is better positioned than others in his party to do so? The DeSantis campaign is pointing to their data in critical swing states showing Trump in familiar holes:
🇺🇲 2024 Battleground States polling by @POStrategies (DeSantis internal, RVs, 06/17-19)
AZ:
DeSantis: 47% (+6)
Biden: 41%
Biden: 45% (+2)
Trump: 43%
.
GA:
DeSantis: 49% (+3)
Biden: 46%
Biden: 47% (+2)
Trump: 45%
.
PA:
DeSantis: 48% (+3)
Biden: 45%
Biden: 48% (+3)
Trump: 45% pic.twitter.com/pV6J7yQSbX— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 21, 2023
I tend to believe most polling this far out is generally garbage, although Trump vs. Biden hypotheticals aren't so hypothetical. There are various scenarios I can envision in which Trump may improve upon his 2020 performance if he wins the nomination, such as a recession arriving in the election year (a distinct possibility). But if this is how he handles important persuasion opportunities, he's not serious about winning key voting blocs back -- apparently because he thinks he doesn't have to:
…this derailed the interview, as the two tangled over the flurry of false & unproven assertions Trump offered on this point. Even if you believe Trump’s baseless claims, the detour illustrated exactly why it will be nearly impossible for this man to win over many swing voters.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) June 20, 2023
Fox's @BretBaier gives Donald Trump a simple chance to pitch female independent suburban voters on why they should pick him this time.
Rather than answer, Trump spends the next couple minutes saying he won the 2020 election. "Let's go to recent: FBI Twitter," he blurts out. pic.twitter.com/LjYhkvABJH— The Recount (@therecount) June 20, 2023
If you're among the people who will respond to this with, "well he did win," you are of course entitled to that opinion. But Trump's legal team never even came close to proving it in court -- and sometimes didn't even try when presented with chances to do so. Joe Biden is president. And Trump's unproven claims are anathema to most of the very people who Republicans need to win over or win back in 2024. Opinions, including unfounded ones, are fine. But if the goal is to win elections, it's better to deal with facts than feelings. The facts are that Trump lost in 2020 and the people who will determine the winner next time believe that Trump lost in 2020. Many of them personally contributed to that loss because they were tired of the type of nonsense above, which feels to them like a powerful invitation to make the same decision again.
Trump was handed an easy layup of a question on a silver platter, and he decided to knock the platter to the floor and demand that people focus a wildly unpopular grievance narrative that didn't survive real scrutiny. That's certainly a choice. And Republican voters will have their own choice next year: Whether they want to go with this again. Speaking of choices, I'll leave you with this juxtaposition, which the DeSantis campaign is understandably eager to put directly in front of conservative voters:
CNN in December 2020: The Trump White House "insisting Florida must reestablish strong mitigation statewide" including mask mandates and shutting down bars and restaurants, "but bars are OPEN in Florida."
Thankfully, Gov. @RonDeSantis rejected Trump's order. pic.twitter.com/g7sDrQXUzE— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) June 20, 2023
TRUMP, JUNE 2023: I don’t regret lockdowns.
DESANTIS, AUGUST 2020: “We will never do any of these lockdowns again.” pic.twitter.com/eCYuPS5yNi— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) June 21, 2023
Trump is welcome to make his case without leveling deeply false attacks on the state of Florida and the successful conservative governance that has made it a beacon, and without making common cause with California's failing left-wing governor. He's choosing to do those things anyway. Choices, all around.You’re embarrassing yourselves.
Here’s Donald Trump repeatedly praising @RonDeSantis for keeping Florida OPEN and FREE. https://t.co/Sk4dmNFacR pic.twitter.com/3ylfizGTeT— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) June 20, 2023
Dunno what poll this guy is pushing but it is radically different from all the other polls in which Trump has actually seen a bump since the latest corrupt lawfare attempt against him and now registers about 60% support in the Republican field. DeSantis meanwhile, has declined to 14% support.
Didn’t Trump say DeSantis has turned Florida into an unlivable hell hole despite moving himself and his entire family to the state
MAKE AMERICA FLORIDA
no
Might want to learn to use google and realize you’re mostly wrong
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/589865-florida-great-trump-desantis/
This was a matchup poll of Biden V Trump and Biden V DeSantis.
The polls you’re talking about are Trump V DeSantis within the GOP.
Again, we need to nominate someone who can actually win.
This polling also proves that we can win a national election without “Trump or Die” poopy pants FReepers. (those who will only vote for Trump, even if DeSantis is the nominee)
I agree!
Yawn. Another NeverTrumper pretending that Rhonda Santis is responsible for retirees moving to Florida. It has nothing to do with him and would’ve happened regardless of who was the governor.
Elderly people are Republican. Everyone knows this, except for NeverTrumpers who want to lie about the electability of their unappealing fraud.
Guy The Gay Benson is a Trump hater from way back.
In 2016, I won a public Twit bet with this analdidget and he never paid off. Nothing he says is reliable.
FL was hugely trending red prior to 2016. Trump capped it off. Since then, it’s been a steady upward incline. DeSoros had nothing to do with it.
We’ve been over the data that shows DeSoros will leave home 13 million non-Rs/non-Ds/not really “independents” because they DO NOT COME OUT TO VOTE except for Trump himself. DeSoros would lose the entire industrial midwest save maybe OH. He quite possibly would lose IA, plus of course AZ, GA, and NV. He has no appeal in the suburbs, according to Richard Baris, because the burbs are no longer R. They are woke enclaves.
I was in FL during the middle of Covid.
Voters were VERY happy they didn’t have to wear the face diaper and thanked Ron for doing it.
Ron has flipped FL from Purple to Red.
Trump or anyone else in the GOP had nothing to do with it.
The someone who can actually win is Trump. He polls better with Independents than DeSantis and better vs Biden than DeSantis and just plain better than Biden. He leads Biden by 6-7% nationwide while DeSantis is tied with or slightly behind Biden.
My god that’s pathetic. We’re relying on an almost 80 year old to get voters out to vote. That is sad and will ultimately give democrats their one party rule their after. A lot of selfish idiots in the republican party.
2020 proved that statement wrong. I didn’t even need Google to prove your lie.
The Republican Party and Democrat Parties will do the same thing to Donald Trump in 2024 that they did in 2020. Steal the election from him again. Conservatives in America will never realize that the Republican and Democrat Parties are working in cahoots [together] against them. They will allow them [Conservatives] to win a few fights, but they will never win the battle. 2016 was a fluke. Both the Republican and Democrat Parties underestimated Donald Trump. It will never happen again.
1. 2024 is not 2020.
2. There was massive election fraud in 2020. 81 million votes my ass.
So much for your BS.
It was Trump who picked Rhonda, you left that fact out in your juvenile attack.
No one is going to win without a detailed plan to Ballot Harvest in all Right wing places.
Donald Trump won in 2020.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.