With over 95% of vote in, there’s no clear winner.
It will come down to which side can assemble a coalition from the minor parties.
From the nyt looks like the Left has enough outliers to form a majority. I hope someone with a better grasp can correct me.
At 99 percent of the vote counted, the federal parties lean strongly to the right (PP + Vox = 169, short by 7 of 176) (versus Socialists + Radical Left = 153, short by a lot).
The regionalist parties are about evenly split.
Possible coalition partners for a right-of-center coalition
Basque-PNV 5
Navarre 1
Canary 1 (bingo!)
AND maybe Catalonia-Junts 7 [*]
Possible coalition partners of a left-of-center coalition
Basque-El Bildu 6
Catalonia-ERC 7
Galacia 1 (still short by 8) (the left-of-center coalition would need Catalonia-Junts and at least one of Navarre and Canary)
[*] A problem is the right-of-center parties are strongly federalist, and Junts is pro-independence.