Posted on 08/05/2023 9:26:33 AM PDT by Drew68
Bob Wood, 66, has been thinking of selling his home in Mobile, Alabama. The finance professor and his wife, Terri, purchased the 5,000-square-foot house with a pool nearly a decade ago. “It’s probably time to downsize,” he said. They would also like to be closer to their grandchildren in Tennessee.
And yet, “we are in the 10th year of a 3.125% 15-year fixed mortgage,” he said. They don’t want to move now and give up that low rate to buy at a higher rate.
“We just don’t want to pay that much in interest.”
Wood is among “a stock of people sitting on very cheap mortgages,” said Tomas Philipson, a professor of public policy studies at the University of Chicago and former acting chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
Those homeowners would need to finance a new home at a higher rate than the rate they currently hold, adding hundreds of dollars a month to their mortgage payment, which has created an incentive to stay where they are. For them, opting not to move is “the right strategy.”
With home prices and interest rates on the rise, “the consumer is best advised to stay put,” Philipson said.
he recent spike in mortgage rates has created a so-called golden handcuff effect. The term is often used to describe financial incentives employers may offer to discourage employees from leaving a company. For homeowners, a low mortgage rate is similar.
Most homeowners today have mortgages with interest rates below 4% or even below 3%, after moving or refinancing when rates hit record lows during the Covid pandemic.
Nearly 82% of home shoppers said they felt “locked-in” by their existing low-rate mortgage, according to a recent survey by Realtor.com.
Because of that, there is a critical shortage of homes for sale, with year-to-date new listings roughly 20% behind last year’s pace.
After bottoming out at 2.93% in January 2021, the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage currently sits near 7%, according to Bankrate.com.
Wood said he’d be more likely to move if rates came down to “the 4%-5% range.”
That’s the tipping point, a recent report from Zillow found: Homeowners are nearly twice as willing to sell their home if their mortgage rate is 5% or higher and yet, 80% of mortgage holders have a rate below 5%. Since it’s unlikely rates will drop anytime soon, buyers can expect a continued standstill for now.
“The reality of it is, until inflation comes down in a meaningful and sustainable way, mortgage rates are going to stay high,” said Greg McBride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst.
In the meantime, the shortage of homes for sale is putting more pressure on prices.
“Dampened affordability remains an issue for interested homebuyers and homeowners seem unwilling to lose their low rate and put their home on the market,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.
“In many ways, we’re in uncharted territory right now,” said Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree.
Between 1978 and 1981, mortgage rates similarly doubled from around 9% to more than 18%, compelling more homeowners to hold on to their homes.
However, “mortgage rates weren’t at record lows in the late 70s before they started to skyrocket in the early 80s, nor did home prices increase as rapidly,” Channel said.
But if history is any guide, “there is a good chance the housing market will eventually pick up steam again like it has in the past,” he added.
“While mortgage rates may not return to sub-3% levels again anytime soon — if ever — there’s no reason to think that they’ll stay as high as they currently are forever, Channel said.
“And if, or when, they do start to fall, we’ll likely see the housing market become more active again.”
Don't know where I want to retire to. Certainly not San Diego but I don't know if I want to return back to Virginia either.
I thought about selling my Suffolk home but I don't want to give up that great interest rate so I have opted to rent it out for a while and see what happens.
I'm still kicking myself for selling my home in Jacksonville, Florida. Even though I netted a nice profit, the value of that home has skyrocketed since I sold it. I wish dearly I had held on to it and rented it out instead.
OR... People can be like me where the government demons seized your property for something stupid like a city park bathroom. All it takes are a couple bureaucrat demons to steal everything you own and worked for.
Can you believe how petty and ungrateful these people sound? How about the sorry people trapped paying 2k a month in rent for dog crap.
Let’s suppose he owes $100,000 on this mortgage.
If I were in his shoes, I’d ask the bank how much they’d be willing to accept to prepay the whole thing right now … because someone is losing a lot of money lending money at 3.125% when the current prevailing rates are around 7% and the official (underreported) inflation rate is over 4.5%
Huh? Wouldn't there be a one-for-one match in the reduction in the number of buyers then? I can understand real estate agents crying about that because they get zero commission from people not moving, but a shortage is housing isn't caused by people not moving around - it is caused by the difference between new buyers and building.
If you play musical chairs with 20 kids and 19 chairs, but allow 15 to just sit rather than fight for a chair the competition is still the same for the other 5 kids fighting for 4 chairs.
We were thinking about moving to Tennessee for retirement, but have decided for the time being to stay put. The grass isn’t always greener, it’s just green, same as where we are now. Plus, retirement has been pushed back several years, thanks to Joe and the policies he pushes. For all I know, this may be our forever home.
Cheap mortgage….or having your grandchildren know who you are
Decisions decisions
Right. In what universe is this classifiable as a problem?
I’m blessed to be sitting on a low interest rate.
I don’t feel trapped.
In year 10 of a 15 year mortgage on a 5000 square foot house with a pool, it’s hard to believe this guy couldn’t sell, pay off the remaining balance and buy a smaller property in Tennessee with the remaining cash. If he can’t do it this year, he ought to be able to soon.
I don’t get why anyone would finance their next home when they are heading into retirement.
Truth be told, I was perfectly happy in my home in Suffolk and wanted to finish of my career there.
But the Navy has a funny sense of humor. The only people who get orders to Hampton Roads are the people who desperately don’t want to be stationed there. If you want Hampton Roads, where there’s countless Navy jobs, you’re out of luck.
Believe me, packing up the wife and kids and relocating to San Diego for a three year shore tour was not how I wanted to end my career but as I was reminded, they’re called “orders”, not “invitations.”
They should have Paid the House off in 10 years. My last mortgage I paid off in 10 months, the mortgage on my House at the Colorado River in AZ I paid off in less than 10 years. then I paid all cash for the house I just built, because I have NO BILLS or DEBTS.
My daughter has a house in AZ right down the street from mine, I paid cash for it with the inheritance she got from my father when he died, Her and her husband did a cash out refi and paid cash for a house in Texas where they moved to. Her house is rented out for double the loan payment and the loan will be paid off on a 5 year schedule by paying every last nickel extra they can come up with and they will no longer be debt slaves.
Everyone should do everything possible to avoid becoming a Debt Slave. Every last nickel you can muster should be used to PAY off any and all debts, especially a Mortgage.
Oh, no! I have a low rate mortgage and that is just BAD!
Liberals are morons. The real problem isn’t the low rate montage. The problem is the democrats have jacked interest rates. They love Big Banks and Big Oil. Bog banking and oil industries have massive record profits when democraps are in office.
Bad news…once you rented your house it stopped being your home and became an investment. You lost the sheltered appreciated value of every previous home you owned and rolled into buying this one. Now when you sell its all taxable gain, plus taxes on the depreciation you are forced to declare.
Your only hope is to move back in for long enough the IRS accepts it being converted to personal residence. At least a year, maybe more.
Or stay on the investment property merry go round by doing a Starker deferred exchange when you sell, and buy another investment property.
Then MAYBE try to do the personal residence conversion thing by moving in after renting for acceptable time…1-2 years depending on the rules
The rules keep changing so you need to keep up and get tax expert advice.
Been there, doing that.
It’s also the grandfathered property taxes. Move and most likely your property tax bill goes way up.
If he is 10 years in on a 15 yr mortgage, he has plenty of equity in that house. If he’s downsizing and moving to Tennessee, he might be able to pay cash for a house and not have a mortgage.
really
Paid off our 30-year loan in 7 years over 14 years ago and never went into a penny of debt again.
My parents could have paid off their mortgage ten times over but never did.
There is a certain mentality that thinks debt is a financial strategy.
To me, debt is danger. Savings is safety.
We should all be so fortunate.
I'm not being sarcastic. One aspect of the Great Reset is the elimination of generational wealth. When Bill Gates, Blackrock, and the ChiComs own all the housing, there will be nothing to pass down to the kids except Grandma's Hummel collection and grandpa's old power tools.
Thanks for the info. The is my first dip into the landlord game.
Yeah, anything near Mayport has gone way up. My SIL / BIL have been looking at Ponte Vedre, and it’s very expensive.
We bought a next phase house two years ago and are darn glad we did. I think it’s worth $150k-$200k more than we paid, not that we’re interested in selling.
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