There are now a dozen metro real estate markets in the country that have been going down for over a year.
Boise, Austin, San Fran, Nashville, Dallas, Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Antonio, ALL have gone down in price.
If we go into a recession, that trend will spread to more areas when people are FORCED to sell.
Now, the only people being forced to sell because they are being told they have to come back into the office in Seattle. So, they are forced to sell their house they bought two years ago in Boise.
It is also my understanding that companies like BLACKROCK stopped buying houses almost a year ago. Especially in places like Austin.
The real issue is no one wants to take out a 8% mortgage unless they are forced to. So, people are staying put unless they can buy a house for cash. Which is happening with about 40% of the houses purchased in many markets currently.
I paid $270K for my house 12 years ago. I do not owe anything. I could probably sell it for $600K or more. So, I I sold it I could probably buy a house for cash in many markets. I am fairly typical of the Baby Boomers.
“no one wants to take out a 8% mortgage unless they are forced to.”
This is the elephant in the room.
Interest rates rose so quickly that there are millions of folks with existing 3% mortgages who would be insane to “trade up” to a 8% mortgage.
That puts large chunks of the housing market in grid-lock.
In most cases it is a loser to relocate for a company raise or promotion.