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To: Redmen4ever

Polls are pure BS run by the media and Democrats. Trump should be double digits ahead in every poll if they were truthful polls. Any sane person, which eliminates many in America, would never vote Biden especially after the last 3 years and didn’t in 2020 but the brain dead idiot got 81m votes... Which is where the problem lies.


11 posted on 02/16/2024 4:22:34 AM PST by maddog55 (The only thing systemic in America is the left's hatred of it!)
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To: maddog55

Regarding the shortcomings in polls, we have alternate sources of information about the current status of campaigns:

1. betting markets - these actually long preceded scientifically-valid opinion polls. The obvious question is: on what are the betting odds based if not scientifically-valid polls?

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/0895330041371277

2. the stock market - in close races, they move after the vote is counted. But, if the outcome is pretty much a sure thing before the vote is counted, they move before the vote is counted. Admittedly, this source of information is difficult to interpret in isolation, as stock markets move all the time for any number of reasons.

As to whether the polls are “pure BS,” they’re better than flipping coins, but nowhere near as good as they’re supposed to be given probability theory.

In 2016, for example, many of us who were hoping for a Trump victory, looked “into” the polls and saw a drift of Gary Johnson voters toward Trump and thought that draft would continue through the days immediately preceding the vote. We also saw that a lot of undecided minority voters expressed values associated with Trump; and, we thought in the privacy of the voting booth, they’d vote their values and not their skin color. (Hey, that’s one of the reasons we like voting on election day and we like the secret ballot.)


14 posted on 02/16/2024 5:00:19 AM PST by Redmen4ever
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