Posted on 02/16/2024 8:22:31 PM PST by lasereye
The soft-landing dream is over; instead, the US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi says.
"There's this very powerful and seductive narrative around a soft landing, and we're just not seeing it in the data," Citi's chief US economist, Andrew Hollenhorst, said in a CNBC interview.
"The question is where are these forward-looking indicators showing us that we're going to go," Hollenhorst said.
One place the economy is showing a weakness is the labor market. January had a blowout jobs report, adding 353,000 jobs to the economy. But Hollenhorst noted that if you scratch beneath the surface, the number of hours worked is falling, the number of full-time workers has decreased, and sectors such as the restaurant industry have stalled on hiring.
"That's the key to the economy — what happens in the labor market," Hollenhorst said. "If the unemployment rate stays low, people continue to spend, the economy holds up." But he added that the unemployment rate was expected to start rising, which would be "the sign that we're going to have a more material decline in the US economy."
Hollenhorst also said inflation was still too high. This week's data from the consumer price index did show a higher-than-expected uptick in monthly inflation, which dragged stocks lower on Tuesday.
Credit-card delinquency rates are also rising. The top economist David Rosenberg has said a consumer credit default cycle has already arrived, with one in every 12 credit-card holders missing their payments.
And consumer weakness is also exposing itself in retail sales numbers. Thursday's release showed a significant drop in activity, posting a 0.8% decline in January.
Hollenhorst isn't alone in his pessimism. Apollo Management's Torsten Sløk recently echoed the sentiment that a soft landing is now the "least likely" scenario.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
I was off by a year
BidenDepression 2024
I’m looking for the report on Jan 15 Estimated Tax payments for 2024 v. 2023.
Guessing: Interest rates will not decline until taxes increase.
Democrats would like to dump the debt, fiscal, and taxes problems on Republicans . . . much pointing of fingers toward Republicans and Trump.
I hope the economy crashes so hard that it (1) breaks democrats’ bones. (2) the illegals decide Guatemala wasn’t so bad and go home. (3) Joe Biden is publicly tarred and feathered along with his advisors.
I want 50% unemployment and riots in the streets. I want people on the left to feel it in their bones
No such thing as a soft landing. Never was and never will be. This the nature of inflation. The FED believes in Unicorns.
The economy has been kept afloat by printing money out of thin air to cover multi-Trillion dollar deficits every year. But like a spender who maxes out all her credit cards, there is a limit to all excesses.
Yeah, sometimes bitter medicine is needed to cure illness.
Once the government money to prop up GDP stops being printed it will fall. Dems and dumb GOPers will demand a jobs bill to keep the party going because of the incredible job losses. We’ll keep stepping on the gas pedal until we hit the curve and fly off the precipice.
The Fed needs to continue to increase the interest rate. The inflation rate is still too high. The Biden Adminstrstion probably wants the Fed to start to cut rates now. If they do that, it’ll cause the inflation rate to become sky high again.
My brother.
I could have written that myself.
What politician is going to propose “austerity”? Who is going to be the turd in the punch bowl that tells Americans that their Social Security is being reduced, retirement age increased, medicare cut, welfare slashed, military and federal pensions cut, federal/military workforce slashed, and taxes increased?
“I hope the economy crashes so hard that it (1) breaks democrats’ bones.”
Don’t you realize that it would break the bones of fellow creepers?
Problem with that is people on the right will feel it too.
I nominate ETCM!
We’ve been in a recession for almost 2 years.
Oh, it’s not the “Biden Economy,” it’s the “American Economy.” I see.
And hard enough that millennials and unmarried women consider food far more critical than abortion, DEI and trannies.
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