Here's Why the Haley Campaign Is Pretty Excited About This New National Poll

Townhall ^ | 02/23/2024 | Guy Benson

[SeekAndFind]

The Haley campaign is blasting out a new national poll from Marquette Law School, which shows their candidate vastly outperforming Donald Trump in a hypothetical match-up against Joe Biden.  Yes, Trump leads Biden head-to-head in the survey by four points, but Haley absolutely blows Biden out.  A national Quinnipiac survey published earlier in the week showed Trump trailing Biden by four points, while Haley led Biden by three points -- a net over-performance of seven percentage points for the former South Carolina governor.  The Trump/Haley vs. Biden gap is even more pronounced in the MU Law numbers, at 14 percentage points.  She's up 18 in this data set:

🇺🇲 NATIONAL GE: 


@MULawPoll

Trump 52% (+4)
Biden 48%
.
Haley 59% (+18)
Biden 41%
—
Trump 43% (+3)
Biden 40%
RFK Jr 14%
West 1%
Stein 1%
—
GOP Primary
Trump 74% (+59)
Haley 15%
—
Dem Primary
Biden 73% (+72)
Phillips 1%
—
538: #3 (2.9/3.0) | LVs | 2/5-15https://t.co/01boGFfU5s pic.twitter.com/T4n8tHEi5S— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 22, 2024

A lot of Americans want Biden gone, but many of them aren't excited about replacing him with Trump.  Haley said on Tuesday that she has no plans to get out of the race any time soon, even if she handily loses her home state this coming weekend, as expected.  She's been talking up the open primary states of Super Tuesday as her next frontier, even as she trails substantially across the board in those places.  Because Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination, let's examine more of his numbers.  As has been the case for months, things are looking rather bleak at the moment for Biden.  Look at these issue advantage statistics, per the MU Law survey:

Immigration/border security - Trump 54% (+28) Biden 26%.

The Economy - Trump 53% (+18) Biden 35%.

Israel/Hamas war - Trump 47% (+17) Biden 30%.

Foreign Relations - Trump 46% (+7) Biden 39%

Healthcare - Biden 43% (+5) Trump 38%.

Abortion - Biden 43% (+6) Trump 37%.

Medicare/SSA - Biden 41% (+2) Trump 39%.

Trump is up big on the border, the economy, and the Middle East conflict.  He's also ahead on foreign policy in general.  Biden holds narrow, single-digit leads on healthcare, abortion and entitlement programs.  A new KFF national poll that also has Trump ahead of Biden overall by four points also shows Trump leading on the economy by exactly 18 points -- while trailing on healthcare by exactly five points.  Remarkably consistent results:

🇺🇲 2024 National GE: @KFF (2.4/3.0)

Trump 41% [+2]
Biden 37% [=]

[+/- vs 11/23]
—
Who do you think did more as president to improve the economy?

Trump 58%
Biden 40%

Address health care costs
Biden 51%
Trump 46%
—
538: #54 | D31/R26 | RVs | 1/30-2/7https://t.co/MsOaS6ZDr0


pic.twitter.com/fVf093cS7Q— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 21, 2024

Of course, it's the states that matter.  Here's a slate of fresh Emerson polls from various battlegrounds.  Results:

Arizona: Trump +3 head to head with Biden, Trump +6 with other candidates on the ballot

Georgia: Trump +6

Nevada: Trump +6 head to head, Trump +10 with other candidates on the ballot

North Carolina: Trump +3 head to head, Trump +9 with other candidates on the ballot

Pennsylvania: Trump +2 head to head, Trump +5 with other candidates on the ballot 

In all of these polls, Kamala Harris trails by eight-to-ten points, with (relatively unknown) Gavin Newsom sagging further behind.  I'll leave you with this separate poll, out of critical Michigan:

📊 MICHIGAN GE: EPIC MRA

🟥 Trump 45% (+4)
🟦 Biden 41%
—
Senate
🟦 Slotkin 39% (+1)
🟥 Rogers 38%

538: #92 (1.9/3.0) | 600 LV | ±2%https://t.co/6UZUgMPSzE pic.twitter.com/qiGvN4yApX— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 21, 2024

[Captainpaintball]

Trump may not make it to the election. If that is true, Haley will run republicans will understandably stay home, and the democrat nominee will cruise to a 15 point victory.

[ridesthemiles]

NON of these pollsters seem to care that NIKKI is NOT eligible.

[AndyJackson]

If we could just get national ranked choice voting, then Haley would be a shoe-in as everyone’s number 2 choice now that DeSantis is out of the race. /sarcasm

[Carriage Hill]

Neither was Barry Oscumbag, but we all know how that turned out...

[BenLurkin]

Makes sense when you think about it.

The bulk of her voters would be Democrats see her as a Democrat.

[HamiltonJay]

Garbage.

Any poll showing BIDEN BEATING TRUMP, especially when you include 3rd party candidate is a sham.

Look, Biden V Trump is simply a rematch... look at the fundamentals.

Who has lost more support from 2020 to 2024? Trump or Biden?
Clearly Biden, and by a long shot... So any head to head poll Trump wins, period... anyone showing anything different is clearly playing games.

Secondly, 2020 had little 3rd party action, most sat out, from a combination of Covid and The DNC bribing them to stay out. 2024 they will return the ballot. Now, with folks like the Green Party, and RFK jr and other left wing 3rd parties returning to ballost in various states does anyone think this will not harm Biden further? Of course it will.

So any poll showing Biden doing better against Trump when the 3rd parties are added is a poll that cannot be trusted.

THe best BIDEN can possibly do against Trump when third parties are added is remain stable.. but in reality he will lose a few points, particuarly in critical states where he can’t afford to due to these parties returning to the balliot.

Finally Any poll showing Haley outperforming Trump in head to head, should be taken with a grain fo salt, particularly if it poll “indepedendts’ without classifying them by previous cycle votes... We know in NH and IA, that independent voters who voted for Hillary in 16 and Biden in 20 intentionally showed up and voted for Haley just to prop her up with no intention of voting for her in the general, and those people if polled will do the same thing in polling.

[bwest]

That’s nonsense. I don’t like her either, but she’s eligible.

[Magic Fingers]

I agree with you, but that ship sailed years ago and it’s never coming back.

[SaveFerris]

That may indeed be the plan....😨😱

[SaveFerris]

Yep

[mel]

That requirement flew out the window with big ears

[Quentin Quarantino]

A vote for Trikki Nikki is a vote for the continuing fundamental transformation of America.

She’s playing for the other team.

[mel]

That requirement flew out the window with big ears

[Sarah Barracuda]

The only “Republicans” that vote for Nikki Haley are never trumpers who voted for Biden in 2020 anyway so F them

[Macho MAGA Man]

(but she’s eligible.)

Oh no she’s not. None of her parents were naturalized citizens when she was born. Educate yourself because you won’t hear it in the media.

[BlueStateRightist]

Haley is this election’s Kasich. Though she will end up doing worse than he did.

[Seruzawa]

I bet you enjoy pissing into the wind, too.

[frogjerk]

She is not eligible. If you carefully look at the issue. From a careful reading of the Constitution enjoined with reference to the founding Father’s thinking and debates that were held along with the founding fathers influences it is clear she is not eligible. Now will this be done by SCOTUS or will such a case ever reach SCOTUS or is there anyone who will be granted standing in such a case is another question entirely.

[Kazan]

Never mind, the poll yesterday showing Haley losing to Biden in Texas by nine points.