Posted on 02/27/2024 10:30:57 AM PST by RandFan
1) “I think we shut down.”
Those were the words of senior House GOP leadership source about the prospects of a partial government shutdown at 11:59:59 pm et Friday.
2) “I think (House Speaker Mike) Johnson (R-LA) is scared of a CR,” added the Republican source, referring to a Continuing Resolution, an interim spending bill to avert a shutdown.
3) Johnson’s political capital is slipping. And it wouldn’t take much for someone to try to unseat Johnson if he commits to a fourth CR.
That said, Johnson might actually survive that effort compared to his predecessor, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).
4) But we don’t know.
Here’s the biggest problem: they are running out of track. It is now midday Tuesday. Funding expires Friday night. The House does not even return from a recess until tomorrow night.
5) And Johnson could face an utter firestorm from conservatives if he punts AGAIN on government funding. That would be the fourth interim spending measure since the initial government funding crisis last September.
6) There is already concern that Congress is running behind schedule on funding the government for the NEXT fiscal year, which begins October 1. That’s why some conservatives would like to do a year-long CR just to keep the lights on and avert a shutdown.
7) It wasn’t that long ago that many conservatives opposed a CR. They used to demand that Congress pass spending bills “by the book.” One by one. Now conservatives are okay with a stopgap plan, known as a “continuing resolution” or “CR.” Federal spending climbs year after year.
8) A CR simply renews all the old funding – without an increase. This gambit maintains the old spending levels. It’s not a cut. But there’s no new funding. Thus, to conservatives, it saves money.
9) But a CR is a problem for many defense hawks – others who are also very conservative. That’s because the Pentagon consumes about 55 percent of all money Congress appropriates each year. So a CR for the military is exponentially worse for the Pentagon than other agencies.
10) Regardless we should know more later today about the fate of a potential stopgap bill. The House has a non-binding “three-day rule” where legislative text must be posted for three days before the House can vote.
11) We’re at that meridian right now if the sides are to avert a shutdown.
In addition, there is starting to be chatter about what happens if there is a partial government shutdown next week when President Biden is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union address.
12) There is nothing which prevents the President from doing the speech. But ultimately, the call is Johnson’s. He’s the House Speaker and extended the invitation to the President.
13) Johnson told me earlier today he did not think this would be an issue because “we’re going to prevent the shutdown.”
But there is precedent for postponing State of the Union.
14) Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) asked former President Trump to hold off on State of the Union in January, 2019 amid the 35-day government shutdown.
A shutdown during State of the Union is simply bad political optics for both sides.
15) So, here’s what we’re staring at if there is a government shutdown this weekend:
This is a partial shutdown impacting four of the 12 federal spending areas: Energy and water programs go dark. Agriculture and food assistance is suspended.
16) Spending for military construction stops. Projects for transportation and housing go on hiatus.
17) However, the ENTIRE federal government shuts down after 11:59:59 pm et on March 8. That’s where the remaining eight spending areas run out of cash. That includes the military and Department of Homeland Security.
Well. Not federal workers. Some of which are actually necessary. Maintenance people and things like that. Not much beyond that.
You want a CR! Fine do a CR -10% ... Some more of those and we might fix something.
Say that to the judge and you’ll get bounced so fast your head will spin.
L
Express that during the Jury selection and you'll be home by noon.
They talked of having twelve clean departmental funding bills.
Rank the departments in order of priority, fund the ones that matter first. If there’s no money for the lesser departments, let them find honest work.
We’ve had a few “shutdowns” but they’ve passed a Continiung Resolution every time before it mattered.
That would be 30 times.
I’m so old I remember when the House passed an annual budget every year and we didn’t need Continuing Resolutions. CRs enable more spending/graft and both parties love them.
To stop the never ending growth of big government, you have to STOP FEEDING the beast! Shut it down.
“Shutting down is going to make an already bad November outlook worse. I’m currently thinking D+25 and it could go a lot higher.”
LOL Wut?
In July 2018 I called House D+40 and for months I was called all kinds of names here. Final results = D+40.
The Trump phenomenon is not at the root a Republican phenomenon. The “takeover” of the GOP has failed. Trump is cosmically more popular than GOP candidates. But if he wins he will win on a broad front as he did in 2016.
He thought the GOP would help drain the swamp. The truth is, they ARE the swamp.
The most important thing is to replace the regime peacefully. This can be done by voting, but if it’s not a bipartisan project it will fail.
Most Democrats are worthless but so are most Republicans. To replace the permanent government is a huge undertaking and Trump needs allies, wherever he can find them.
Every department should submit their budget, & any department that is unnecessary should be shuttered. That’s most of them.
Just tell ‘em those last 7 words and the defense attorney will bounce you in a hurry.
The deal is done.
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