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“We obviously need Nikki Haley! /s”
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I am no fan of Nikki Haley. Were she to be elected, she would be, at best, a mixed bag in the vein of George W. Bush. That being said, she should be taken seriously when she asserts that Donald Trump cannot win a General Election. It would be more accurate to say Trump will have a difficult time winning the 2024 General Election.

It remains possible for him to eke out a win, but only if the stars align exactly right. He caught lightning in a bottle in his 2016 victory, primarily because he was running against the universally despicable Hillary Clinton and the Democrats were caught flat footed by taking the rust belt states for granted. Democrats are determined not to let that happen again in 2024.

With the corrupt and feeble Biden’s approval rating in the tank, Democrat strategists have known for some time that their only hope for prevailing in 2024 is to be matched against the one GOP candidate whose approval rating is similarly in the tank – Trump! To be matched against any of the GOP rising stars (DeSantis, Kim Reynolds, Youngkin, Tim Scott, etc.) would spell disaster for Biden and they would have quickly replaced him with Newsom.

In order to ensure Trump would get the GOP nomination, Democrats unleashed the flurry of scurrilous legal proceedings against Trump, knowing that Trump loyalists would instinctively come to his defense via the GOP nominating process. That strategy has worked like a charm, as numerous quality GOP candidates were bullied and insulted out of the race by the petty, childish and vindictive Trump. A true statesman would have stepped aside and let a newer generation of GOP leaders emerge, but the 77 year old Trump’s narcissism would not allow for that. His vindication is all that matters to him, and his loyalists have remained firmly in his camp in sufficient numbers to ensure he is the nominee.

Now that the GOP nomination is in his grasp, where does that leave things? Trump likes to say “I’m leading Biden by a lot!” That is true – In West Virginia, Alabama and Wyoming! That is not true in the states that will determine the outcome of the 2024 election. Here are Trump’s poll numbers in six key swing states (RCP averages):

Georgia – 48.5
Wisconsin – 46.4
Arizona – 47.5
Nevada – 48.7
Michigan – 46.2
Pennsylvania – 44.2

In 2020, Trump carried 46.8% of the vote. As seen in these poll numbers he remains stuck at that level in the swing states with little prospect of increasing that number. He is universally known, and no one is changing their mind about him. If the electorate was comprised exclusively of patriotic, rural white males, Trump would have a historic landslide in 2024, winning 98% of the vote. Unfortunately the electorate is far more diverse.

As Trump’s loyal base celebrates his “victories” in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan what do those results really reveal? I submit the following:

As a de facto incumbent, Trump should have been able to vanquish his GOP opponents decisively (80 – 90%), especially after spending tens of millions of dollars in negative attack ads throughout 2023. Instead, between 30 and 50% of GOP voters said they wanted someone other than Trump to be the nominee. This is more than a little alarming.

Winning a general election will require putting together a broad and diverse coalition. Trump’s MAGA loyalists are certainly a part of that coalition, but by themselves are not enough to put him over the top, especially with the Democrat fraud machines in Philly, Detroit, Fulton County, Maricopa County, etc. The blueprint for building such a coalition was demonstrated by Glenn Youngkin in 2021 and Ron DeSantis and Kim Reynolds in 2022, where tremendous victories were achieved in heretofore swing states.

Rather than taking steps to build a winning coalition, Trump is recklessly driving voters away that he would desperately need in November. Building a winning coalition is about addition, not subtraction. Trump doesn’t seem to see that. He gets his thrill from watching his followers at MAGA rallies fawn over his every utterance.

I wonder how many suburban women voters appreciate him calling Nikki Haley “bird brain” or mocking her husband’s overseas deployment. I wonder how many Arizona GOP voters appreciated hearing him denigrate McCain’s military service? I wonder how many Italian Americans were fond of him mocking Ron DeSantis’ name all those months? (DeSantis has been a tremendous governor for Florida, and the best FR members can do is call him “meatball”.) If Trump had not entered the race, DeSantis would be leading Biden 58 – 42 at this point.

Does Trump still have a chance? Yes, if he can avoid a conviction in Bragg’s kangaroo court. He needs to go after Biden relentlessly, but also show some conciliation to other parts of the GOP coalition. That would start by selecting a running mate such as Glenn Youngkin.

Perhaps the best hope is that Biden’s supporters are so despondent they will stay home in large numbers, but that remains a huge unknown. Based on his track record I am not optimistic that Trump can show the self discipline to attract a sufficient number of undecided voters to pull this off. I hope I’m wrong.