Trump still won the state by 10% in 2020, Alaskans pride themselves on being independent, sort of love giving the finger to all sorts-my cousins live up there and tell me that is the way it has always been, they really see themselves as different than all the other states
Any third party candidate (beyond traditional Libertarian) will likely help Trump and defeat Biden, because Trump has a solid lock on a near-majority block of voters anyway, so his routes to victory are
(a) hold on to 45% if two alternatives appear,
(b) increase the solid 45% to 55% in a head to head battle,
(c) do whatever is possible to minimize voting fraud in swing states.
Ronald Reagan did not defeat Jimmy Carter in 1980, John Anderson did. Bill Clinton did not defeat Bush in 1992, Ross Perot did. I think a moderate Republican or less lunatic democrat type of third party run would sink Biden, because all of their votes would come from soft Biden support.
And I also believe Trump probably won in 2020 anyway, at least four states were stolen from him. But once Trump gets to around 57% of popular support, even fraud won’t stop his third bid. Democrats know this and I presume their internal polling is indicating this sort of tidal wave is forming, like the 1984 Reagan or 1972 Nixon wins.