IOW, Iran can get a small % of missiles within a large mostly empty area (called an airbase) at which point the Israelis were still able to jam / confuse the guidance / targeting. If you can’t hit anything of significance (can include a coordinate of “nothing there” to demonstrate your proficiency, stated B4 the attack) you failed. Unless of course you launched a nuke at an empty spot and stated intent and coordinates beforehand, as obviously an all out attempt at interception would still HAVE to be made: A defense failure to keep the nuke from going off then would be just that. and, as the saying goes, quantity (in this case a nuke) has a quality all its own.
Quite a few of the sensors and radars are mobile, so “all mapped out” is rather an overstatement.
“10’s of thousands” of “advanced missiles” is also quite the overstatement. US Centcom’s estimate in 2022 was 3k, of ALL Iran’s ballistic missiles, and they have sent some to Russia. Probably production has at least equaled exports. Still, NOBODY’s arsenal consists mostly of the latest and greatest.
The real danger is a saturation attack, with Hezbollah involved with all the rockets and missiles they’ve got, as even just dumb luck will cause serious damages. Plus, in that scenario, the Iranians should be able to do better than dumb luck. Iran isn’t going to do make that sort of attack, though, unless they want to see their little cultural experiment end up in radioactive ruins.
Well I guess we will soon find out how much of a threat Iran is. The Israeli cabinet has decided to retaliate but has given no timeline.
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
Senior U.S. Officials believe that Iran would Respond to any Significant and Direct Strike launched by Israel on Iranian Soil with a New Wave of One-Way “Suicide” Drones, Cruise Missiles, and Ballistic Missiles; with Officials stating that it would be Hard to Replicate the Success that was seen Saturday Night if Iran does launch another Large-Scale Attack.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1780284106426745315